Putting the brakes on road traffic fatalities in Africa
Road traffic accidents in Africa are expected to rapidly increase over the next four decades, policy interventions in the continent effectively put th
Road traffic accidents in Africa are expected to rapidly increase over the next four decades, becoming a major public health challenge across the continent. However, our forecasts show that if policy interventions in the continent effectively put the brakes on road traffic accidents, then, cumulatively through 2050:
- 4,2 million road traffic deaths would be prevented
- 144 million years of productive, healthy life would be saved
- USD 234 billion would be added to the continent’s GDP
Using the IFs forecasting model, we examine the positive economic and social effects of reduced traffic injuries and deaths by comparing our base case forecast with an improved scenario.
For the latter scenario, we assume that all African countries are able to stabilise death rates from traffic accidents at or near the current continental average (32 per 100 000 people).
The first part of this policy brief attempts to understand traffic fatalities as a development issue, analysing the risk factors that contribute to accidents and suggesting interventions that address these risks.
The final part focuses on scenario development, exploring the social and economic value of increasing road safety in Africa.
About the African Futures project:
The African Futures Project is a collaboration between the Institute for Security Studies and the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures (www.ifs.du.edu) at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. These organizations leverage each others’ expertise to provide forward-looking, policy-relevant material that frames uncertainty around human development in Africa.
Authors: Mark Eshbaugh, Greg Maly, Jonathan D Moyer and Erin Torkelson
