Development trends report for Southern Africa

This report explores current and projected trajectories of Southern African countries to 2040 based on multi-source historical data.

Over the past 15 years Southern Africa has enjoyed a period of relative peace, a contrast to the previous four decades when violent coups and long-standing civil wars confronted many countries in the region.

Countries in Southern Africa appear to be approaching a tipping point, where actions today — especially those that change the trajectory of government capacity and effectiveness — will determine whether the region retreats into a period of potentially violent instability or advances toward a more prosperous, sustainable future.

Throughout this report, we use the International Futures Current Path scenario to explore the long-term trends in country-level development across issue areas to 2040.

Authors: David K. Bohl, Steve Hedden, Jonathan D. Moyer, Kanishka Narayan and Jessica Rettig