Growing competition for African ports and security partnerships offers new leverage – if countries can avoid deeper geopolitical fragmentation.
Attention should shift to preserving the peace deal that underpins the current government and is key to averting large-scale violence.
Reduced international support for peacekeeping in Somalia comes at a time of heightened political tensions in the country.
The two armed groups are currently united in their opposition to the government, but fundamental differences could break their bond.
The Durban summit identified the right economic priorities, but a geopolitical strategy and credible regional security approach are lacking.
Chad’s rapprochement clashes with its recent emphasis on national sovereignty and risks reviving insecurity among neighbours and disillusionment at home.
Reopening its liaison office offers a narrow, but real, opportunity for the African Union to help achieve a ceasefire.
Prosecuting Rapid Support Forces members in Kenya won’t be easy, but will ultimately depend more on politics than on law or capacity.
Modelling shows that the civil war is pushing an already fragile development trajectory towards systemic collapse.
Repeated flooding is unravelling years of progress in the region
Ending the military-heavy AUSSOM gives the AU space to develop a political mission focused on long-term stabilisation.
South Sudan’s fragile transition is increasingly shaped by forces beyond its borders that drive illicit arms flows into the country.
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