Sub-Saharan Africa faces many structural pressures that increase the risk of political instability and violent conflict. Understanding the nature and trajectories of structural pressures is key for conflict prevention, development and peacebuilding. Using five models of instability and the International Futures system, this report finds that the risk from demographics and poor development has eased and will reduce further. Anocratic regimes pose the greatest challenge to stability, and horizontal inequalities are likely to continue to fuel grievances.
About the authors
Julia Bello-Schünemann is a senior researcher for the African Futures and Innovation programme at the ISS. She has consulted on peace and security, providing policy advice to the EU and UNDP, among others.
Jonathan D Moyer is assistant professor at the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies, and director of the Frederick S Pardee Center for International Futures, home of the International Futures model.
Picture: ©Amelia Broodryk/ISS