New faces in the contest for AU Commission chairperson
Three new candidates have entered the race for AU Commission chairperson to be elected in January 2017.
The election of the new African Union Commission (AUC) is to take place at the next summit of the AU Assembly in Addis Ababa on 30–31 January 2017. It is a tense race and the number of contenders for all the positions has increased since the elections were postponed in July 2016. Divisive issues such as membership of the International Criminal Court (ICC) are also now likely to play a major role in these elections.
At the 27th AU summit in July in Kigali, Rwanda, the AU heads of state and government failed to agree on the choice of the chairperson of the AUC. The leading candidate, Pelonomi Venson-Moitoi from Botswana, failed to reach the required two-thirds majority of votes to be elected chairperson.
Significantly, 30 member states abstained in the ultimate and seventh round of voting. This was seen as a boycott by those unhappy with the list of candidates on the table. The assembly then decided to extend the mandate of the AUC for six months and reopen the process to allow for new candidates.
Old faces and new contenders for the position of chairperson
While there were only three candidates for the position of AUC chairperson in July 2016, there are now five. Venson-Moitoi and Agapito Mba Mokuy, the foreign ministers of Botswana and Equatorial Guinea, will run again for the same position. Meanwhile, three new candidates have entered the race. They are:
- Abdoulaye Bathily, the former United Nations (UN) special envoy for Central Africa and a former minister of environmental affairs and of energy in Senegal
- Moussa Faki Mahamat, the foreign minister and former prime minister of Chad
- Amina Mohamed, the foreign minister of Kenya and a former deputy executive director of the UN Environment Programme
The foreign ministers of Botswana and Equatorial Guinea will run again |
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In an unprecedented show of interest from across Africa in these elections, four of Africa’s five regions presented a candidate for the position of chairperson, the exception being Northern Africa. The Central region has distinguished itself by fielding two candidates, from Chad and Equatorial Guinea respectively, exposing the regional divide.
Multiple factors influence the choice made by the heads of state, who elect the winner through a secret ballot. These include the support that candidates get from their respective heads of state; the personal connections and networks of the heads of state; regional solidarity; alliances among regions; linguistic and historical links between countries; and the personal stature of the candidates.
For the first time major ideological issues, such as the possible withdrawal by African states from the ICC and the request by Morocco to reintegrate into the AU, are also expected to play an important role.
 Multiple factors influence the choice made by the heads of state, who elect the winner |
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Regional backing a crucial consideration
The challenge faced by most candidates is ensuring strong regional backing while expanding their support through other regions. From this perspective, the double candidacy of Central Africa will have a negative impact on the prospects of its candidates.
The success of Bathily’s candidature, on the other hand, will depend a lot on Senegal’s ability to convince Ghana and Nigeria to respect regional solidarity within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
ECOWAS officially designated Bathily as its candidate earlier this year. Bathily’s election could, however, scupper Ghana and Nigeria’s bids to win the positions of deputy chair and commissioner of peace and security.
Indeed, there is an unwritten rule requiring a regional balance in the top positions at the commission (chairperson, deputy chairperson, peace and security and political affairs). It is unusual to have nationals from the same region filling two of these four portfolios.
Meanwhile, Mohamed is also likely to face some opposition due to the fact that a Kenyan national, Erastus Mwencha, has held the position of deputy chairperson for the last eight years. Some may believe Kenya has had its turn at the top of the AUC.
South Africa and Botswana already at odds over the ICC
| There is an unwritten rule requiring a regional balance in the top positions |
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South Africa’s decision on 21 October 2016 to withdraw from the ICC drew strong reaction from Botswana, a supporter of the court.
Venson-Moitoi said in a media interview that African states should not withdraw from the ICC but rather ‘work towards fixing it’. Officially, South Africa still supports Venson-Moitoi, the candidate of the Southern African Development Community.
In the wake of South Africa’s withdrawal, The Gambia also announced that it would walk away from the ICC. This is in contrast to the stance taken by its neighbour, Senegal. At the July 2016 summit Senegal argued against a call for a collective African withdrawal from the ICC.
This sensitive and highly divisive issue could therefore also play a role in the choices made by the heads of state.
Morocco’s bid also a bone of contention?
The request by Morocco to become a member of the AU could also be a strong driver of discord within the continent. While support for the Democratic Sahrawi Republic (RASD) is decreasing among AU member states, it still counts many regional powers among its supporters (Nigeria, South Africa, Ethiopia). Therefore the position adopted by the states presenting candidates could influence the ultimate outcome of the vote.
More regionally diverse list of candidates
Between July and October 2016 the number of candidates for the AUC rose from 39 to 50. This is largely due to the fact that Southern and Northern Africa presented more candidates than previously; the Northern region now has nine candidates, compared to only six previously, and Southern Africa now has ten candidates, compared to only two in the last round. These were Venson-Moitoi for the position of AUC chairperson and Anthony Maruping Motae for economic affairs.
This time there is thus a greater diversity of candidates from a regional perspective: East (16%), North (18%), West (20%), Central (22%) and South (24%).
In theory, regions are supposed to consult before putting forward candidates for the AUC. However, in most cases there are more than one candidate from a region contesting positions on the commission. This shows that the selection of candidates still remains a decision by individual countries, with minimal or only informal consultation within regions.
| The request by Morocco to become a member of the AU could be a strong driver of discord |
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On the issue of gender representation there has been little movement, however. Compared to the July list, the number of women candidates has risen to 38% from 33%. Another interesting statistic is the gap between the continental median age (19.5) and the average age of the candidates (56.3).
Civil servants still dominate among the candidates
Civil servants, whether diplomats, government officials or international civil servants, constitute almost half of the candidates (48%). Academics (27%) represent the second biggest category. As before, executives from the private sector constitute a marginal proportion of candidates (4%).
The aggregation of these various issues provides an interesting picture of the governance of most African states: a young continent ruled by male civil servants in their late fifties.
Algeria and Nigeria vie for commissioner of peace and security position
The incumbent Commissioner of Peace and Security, Smaïl Chergui, who is from Algeria, will face competition not only from within his own region but also from one of Africa’s other heavyweight countries, Nigeria. In the Northern region Diye Ba from Mauritania is running for this position. Meanwhile, Fatima Kyari Mohammed from Nigeria, ECOWAS’ Special Advisor for Peace and Security, is also in the running for commissioner of peace and security.
| Civil servants constitute almost half of the candidates |
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Earlier this year Nigeria initially presented Salamatu Hussaini Suleiman, the ECOWAS Commissioner of Political Affairs, Peace and Security, for this position before withdrawing his candidature after informal consultations with Algiers.
The fact that it is once again fielding a candidate for this position shows that its interests in the AU have shifted to peace and security from political affairs, where Commissioner Aisha Abdullahi is ending her term. The other surprise is the presence of two candidates from Malawi for this position. This is despite the fact that Southern Africa has been an historical ally of Algeria within the AU and the Peace and Security Council.
High-profile candidates for political affairs
The other competitive race will be for the portfolio of political affairs. The mandate of the Department of Political Affairs covers issues such as governance, elections, the reform of the UN Security Council and the ICC.
The candidates for this critical position include high-profile individuals known in Addis Ababa and diplomatic circles. They are Tete Antonio from Angola, currently AU representative to the UN; Minata Samaté Cessouma, Burkina Faso’s former representative to the AU and previously head of the joint mechanism of the UN-Africa Mission in Darfur (UNAMID); Hawa Ahmed Youssouf from Djibouti, currently the AUC chairperson’s special representative to Madagascar; Rahamtalla Mohamed Osman, Sudan’s former permanent representative to the UN; Hesphina Rukato from Zimbabwe, executive director of the Centre for African Development Solutions; and Churchill Ewumbue Monono from Cameroon, who is a presidential advisor.
