Prospects for the G5 Sahel countries to 2040

Through three scenarios, this report explores development trajectories and presents recommendations for the future.

The G5 Sahel countries – Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger – are confronted with multiple challenges. This report uses the International Futures forecasting system to analyse the likely development trajectory of these five countries to 2040 in agriculture, demographics, infrastructure, governance and education. It compares these prospects with the combined impact of a positive Desert Flower scenario and a dystopian Sahelistan scenario and presents recommendations for the future.

About the authors

Stellah Kwasi, Researcher, ISS Pretoria

Jakkie Cilliers, Programme Head, ISS Pretoria,

Zachary Donnenfeld, Senior Research Consultant, Denver,

Lily Welborn, Researcher, ISS Pretoria

Ibrahim Maiga, Researcher, ISS Dakar

Picture: Oxfam International/Flickr

Development partners
This report is funded by the Government of the Netherlands, the Hanns Seidel Foundation and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency. The ISS is also grateful for support from the members of the ISS Partnership Forum: the Hanns Seidel Foundation, the European Union and the governments of Canada, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the USA.
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