Situation Report: Future Power Plays in Zimbabwe, Chris Maroleng

FUTURE POWER PLAYS IN ZIMBABWE

Chris Maroleng, March 2002

With just two days left before Zimbabwe`s presidential elections in Zimbabwe on 9-10 March, the struggle for supremacy between the two principal protagonists tends to obscure another important consideration: how the outcome will effect the balance of power within the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF).

Most political analysts looking at the presidential contest cynically agree that at this stage free and fair presidential elections in Zimbabwe are impossible, and most predict a narrow victory for the incumbent President Robert Mugabe over the Movement for Democratic Change’s (MDC) candidate Morgan Tsvangirai. The increasing number of reports of political violence and serious violations of human rights in the prelude to the election, particularly by members and supporters of Mugabe’s ZANU- PF, coupled with the introduction of draconian laws by the government, have further tilted an already uneven political playing field, to the distinct disadvantage of the MDC. In these circumstances it appears that it would take nothing short of a miracle to prevent Mugabe winning.

The question then arises: what would such a victory mean for the internal dynamics of the ZANU -PF, and the central issue of an eventual presidential succession. This is a particularly interesting point of conjecture when one considers the various factions jostling for power and influence, sometimes split along ethno-linguistic and provincial lines.

The players

The dominant faction is currently led by President Mugabe, and draws its core following from the Zezuru ethno-linguistic group, one of the principal Chishona-speaking groups. Other leaders of this group include political heavyweights such as retired Lieutenant–General Tapfumanei Solomon Mujuru (nom de guerre Rex Nhongo) who is considered by many to be a potential kingmaker because of his extensive connections in the political, security and commercial sectors of Zimbabwe. Though often underestimated because of his ability to avoid the limelight, this man is a force to be reckoned with. Another important player in the Zezuru faction is Dr Sydney Sekeramayi, former Minister of State for State Security; considered by many to be ZANU-PF’s spymaster. Sekeramayi is seen by some as a presidential contender partly because of his powerful voice in ZANU-PF’s upper echelons, but mainly because of his strong connection to Mujuru. Most analysts predict that the latter would support Sekeramayi in a race for succession to the presidency.

Within ZANU-PF the dominant Zezuru group have formed an alliance with the Manyika Chishona group, which consists of party strong men such as Kumbirai Kangai and Didymus Mutasa and the promising, though political lightweight, Dr Simbarashe Makoni the current Minister of Finance.

For many in the ZANU-PF’s Zezuru-Manyika alliance; the Karanga group (yet another of the Chishona ethno-linguistic groups) represents a threatening third force. This is particularly true of one of the two Karanga factions, which is led by Dr Eddison Zvobgo who in resent months has become increasingly open in his criticism of the Mugabe government. Within this faction of the Karanga, retired Air Marshal Josiah Tungamirai who challenged Vice President Muzenda for Gutu North during the 1995 election most closely supports Zvobgo.

The other Karanga faction is perceived by most to be closely aligned to the Mugabe Zezuru group and is led by aging Vice President Simon Muzenda and his protégé, Minister of Foreign Affairs Dr Stanislaus Mudenge. Also a key member of the Muzenda-Karanga group is Emmerson Mnangagwa, who is thought to be a key contender for presidential succession because of his track record as Security Minister and the high esteem in which he is held by President Mugabe.

Muzenda and Zvobgo have clashed over the leadership of the southern province of Masvingo. However, Muzenda is said to be determined to ensure that Mudenge takes his place when he retires from the vice presidential seat. This is primarily because this will keep Zvobgo out of the political centre and will destroy the remote chance of him succeeding Mugabe

The battle for succession

Most analysts agree that should Mugabe win the election he would seek an exit strategy that would allow him to retire reasonably soon without fear of prosecution and provide him with protection from revenge by some of the enemies that he has made over the past two decades. This exit strategy would ideally require a person to be placed as successor to the presidential seat who Mugabe can trust and has a relatively constant history of loyalty to him. The successor would also have to have the capacity to provide the protection that Mugabe requires and would have to be considered politically astute enough to remain in power long after Mugabe has left the stage. Finally, this successor would preferably come from the dominant Zezuru ethnic group, as ethno-linguistic considerations seem to play an important part in Zimbabwean politics.

The potential successor who would seem to possess the most important of these qualities, and who over the years has become a close confidant to President Robert Mugabe is Emmerson Mnangagwa. However, the fact that he is not a Zezuru could seriously affect his chances. This is because should he succeed Mugabe to the presidency, this would shift the balance of power in the ZANU-PF greatly in favour of the Muzenda-Karanga group, particularly if we consider that yet another member of this group, Stan Mudenge, is considered most likely to succeed Muzenda as Vice President. The fact that the current commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Force, General Vitalis Zvinavashe is also a Karanga should further indicate why such an outcome would be unacceptable to certain elements in ZANU-PF.

This is particularly true for the Zezuru camp which would essentially find them itself excluded from State House for the first time since independence.

The Zezuru camp led by Mujuru would much prefer to see their own man, Sidney Sekeramayi, take the top spot in any post-Mugabe government, as this would act as a counterbalance to the growing strength of the Muzenda Zezuru group. It is widely believed that the faction lead by Mujuru is most likely to succeed in placing its man in the office of the President since Mujuru is believe to enjoy the all-important support of the much feared Central Intelligence Organisation and the Zimbabwe Defence Force, through his close association with members of these institutions particularly current Air Force Commander and former Commander of the notorious 5th. Brigade, Air Marshal Perence Shiri. Mnangagwa’s chances are further reduced by the opposition that he is expected to encounter from within the Karanga group led by Zvobgo.

Blood on the floor

The ensuing power plays that will inevitably occur within ZANU-PF as a result of the hotly contested succession to the presidency will not be uneventful. Considering the fact that ZANU-PF has a long and checkered history of resorting to violence as a means of sorting out political problems, it seems reasonable to anticipate that even after the elections, politically motivate acts of violence will continue to be an essential component of the political landscape of Zimbabwe. Excessive factionalism in ZANU-PF could lead to the implosion of this political party, which would create space for the MDC to take power itself. However, this is all very much future music and one hopes against hope, that a peaceful election and transitional period will be experienced in Zimbabwe whoever wins the forthcoming presidential election.