Situation Report: Burundi - Fragile Communities Shattered by Years of War, Jenny Clover

BURUNDI: FRAGILE COMMUNITIES SHATTERED BY YEARS OF WAR

Jenny Clover, April 2003

The humanitarian situation in Burundi is now very fragile. Since the beginning of the year conditions have deteriorated steadily and the cease-fire has been violated daily. The sense of insecurity is pervasive. International humanitarian organisations report regular ambushes and the looting of aid supplies by rebels, as well as sporadic fighting between government and rebel forces, resulting in civilian deaths and the displacement of people on a scale not seen for many years. By February it was reported that as many as 100 000 people were being displaced internally every month, moving from hill-top to hill-top in an attempt to escape the violence.

By mid-April some 525 000 people were displaced internally, three-quarters of them living in 226 camps. Additional pressure on already overstretched food-aid resources is being caused by a period of abnormally dry weather that has led to a massive drop in the level of food stocks in most parts of the country. The marked decline in the production of beans, the main source of protein for most Burundians, is particularly worrying. Under the current circumstances there is great concern about the prospects for the next agriculture season, as the scarcity of basic commodities, coupled with depreciation of the local currency, has increased the likelihood of people being reduced to consuming seeds required for planting. Over and above this, underfunded relief agencies are struggling, as donors are reluctant to resume major aid programs until an effective cease-fire is in place and the transitional government has begun to implement reforms in terms of the Arusha agreement.

Outside the country there are more than 840 000 Burundian refugees living in the region. Most of them are in Tanzania and some 470 000 of these are integrated with the local population and do not receive UNHCR assistance. In March 2002 the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) implemented a voluntary repatriation program for the return of refugees from Tanzania. Tensions have been increasing amid accusations that camps have served as a base for Conseil National pour la Défense de la Démocratie – Forces de Défense de la Démocratie (CNDD-FDD) FDD rebels as well as growing resentment in local Tanzanian communities that have felt the social, environmental and economic impact of sharing scarce resources.

The refugees are in an invidious position: even if an improved security situation opened the way for their return, there is the real fear that their return could derail the peace process because of the lack of absorptive capacity within Burundi. Not only are general conditions not conducive, but also a major obstacle to a long-term solution for Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and refugees is the scarcity of land, with disputes over land worsening considerably in recent years. Population density in the country is over 240 per sq km, the second highest in Africa after Rwanda, and 766 per sq km of arable land with 90% of the population dependent on subsistence farming.

Access to health care is limited throughout Burundi, and services are generally sub-standard. Malaria is the leading cause of death; Hepatitis A, Typhoid, Yellow fever, Cholera and Meningitis are all prevalent. HIV presents in over 10% of the adult population. Life expectancy in 2000 was an average of 40.6 years.

PROSPECTS FOR PEACE AND IMPROVED HUMANITARIAN SITUATION

The general mood in Burundi is not optimistic. The impending transfer of power to a Hutu president appears to be the main catalyst for increased political and military manoeuvring, with all sides re-evaluating their positions, and trying to increase areas under their control. The transitional government is trying to implement change under enormous pressure – urged by the international community to meet the set deadlines while the political situation remains seriously fragmented. Although international donors have been making substantial aid commitments since 2000, disbursements have lagged far behind and this will continue until a comprehensive ceasefire is in place.

Until the political situation improves, fighting is contained and different elements of the ceasefire implemented, the humanitarian situation will continue to deteriorate. At the same time, the humanitarian conditions are impacting negatively on the political situation – continuing degradation of the socio-economic situation is increasing social tensions, and the failure to respond to humanitarian needs is causing a deepening sense of despair and loss of motivation to work towards peace. Burundians are desperate for resources - neglect of the structural problems that continue to fuel tensions has created an environment in which peace seems continuously beyond reach. Recognising that they can play an essential role in building peace and that they need to support positive developments to push for change, donors are urging for transition while continuing to withhold support until true peace is achieved. International aid has been reduced to a third of the levels prevailing from 1981 to 1995. The suffering of civilians appears to not have been sufficiently understood, or is merely considered inevitable in a region engulfed in conflict. It is questionable whether such prudence is productive. Recently the German GTZ donor promised food aid for FDD rebels on the understanding that they could be confined to the cantonment areas so that they would stop preying on civilians. However, the FDD rebels have proved unwilling to cooperate and there seems no possibility of achieving encampment by 1 May. The two main parties have now also called for sanctions against the Front National de Liberation (FNL) rebels – so they too will be less inclined to lay down arms. There is some hope that the African Union’s 3,500- strong peacekeeping force due to be deployed at the beginning of June will be effective - the deployment of a peacekeeping force is indispensable to the process of encampment and the introduction of a true ceasefire.

Nevertheless, political insecurity is likely to be aggravated further by the fragility of the current regional situation. Demobilization and reintegration of returning forces from DRC has the potential to exacerbate insecurity; this is against a backdrop of concerns over how the reform and integration of the government and rebels armed forces will be handled.

Political developments over the coming months will continue to be a major factor in determining levels of security. A critical issue is that of who will be appointed as Vice-President and what his relationship will be with the Hutu President to be appointed. There is the potential for government institutions to be paralysed by an uncooperative relationship that feeds into and aggravates divisions. Given the depth of poverty, the prevalence of violent conflict, and the scale of human rights violations, the humanitarian situation will not improve unless and until the government upholds human rights, ends impunity, protects civilians and the displaced, improves the justice system, and the international community develops an integrated approach to working in support of such government actions. However, so long as political agendas continue to be determined by elites jostling for power and not working towards peace, the absence of peace, and thus also of funds, will continue to destabilise the state of Burundi.