"Choosing between the two candidates that are now standing in the second round of presidential elections is the worst possible scenario. It means the revolution didn`t achieve anything," said a well-placed Egyptian official who briefed the ISS yesterday, a few hours ahead of the Constitutional Court ruling.

The court declared a rerun of the country`s parliamentary elections, which has plunged the country in disarray. The court also ruled that former Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq would be allowed to participate in the run-off elections this weekend.

"Many people will simply stay away if the choice is between someone supported by the army, Safiq and the candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood Mohammed Moursi," he said.

The source had hoped Shafiq, as a former member of the regime of ousted leader Hosni Mubarak would be disqualified from the 2nd round of the election on 16 and 17 June. (see below). Moursi got 25.3 percent and Shafiq got 24.9 percent of the votes in the first round held on 23 and 24 May.

However, the Constitutional Court ruled otherwise and it looks at this stage if the elections are going ahead, despite protests. If Shafiq wins the election it will mean the continuation of the system under Mubarak.

"The military has ruled Egypt for 60 years. They control 30% of the economy. There was no way they were going to let go," says the source. He admits that the protesters, who occupied Tahrir Square in Cairo for weeks last year, were naive to think that things would change merely by getting rid of Mubarak.

"When Mubarak gave over to the military, people cheered but didn`t realise to what extent their interest would diverge from that of the military".

"The military saw Mubarak as a necessary sacrifice."

The source believes people who supported the revolution are however `slowly but surely` learning how to deal with the difficult power play. He says the candidate who came third in the 1st round of elections, Hamdeen Sabbahi, is emerging as the `leader of the revolution`. "He was the dark horse in the first round, but he`s really very positive, he`s thinking ahead."

Sabbahi, however, didn`t make it to the second round because the vote of the `revolutionaries` was fragmented. Altogether 13 candidates participated in the first round. "If it is Shafiq against Moursi we will have to face our destiny. Then the revolution didn`t happen."

Background:

The Supreme Constitutional Court yesterday ruled on the constitutionality of the Political Isolation Law, which was passed by Parliament in April in order to prevent former Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq from running in the presidential elections. The law prevents any person who served under the Mubarak Administration in the last decade, from running for office. Shafiq`s lawyers argued that the law is unconstitutional because it prohibits a person from running in the election without finding the person guilty of any involvement.

Huge protests broke out following the ruling. However, the Minister of Justice earlier extended the military`s power, by issuing a decree that allows the military police and the military intelligence to detain protestors if they become involved in criminal activity. The new offenses in many cases infringe on a person`s right to demonstrate. This is very alarming as the decree reinstates powers that were given under the 30-year-old State of Emergency Law, which expired two weeks ago. This could lead to further tension as demonstrators can be arrested only based on suspicion.

Compiled by the Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis Division following a special briefing, by a "well-placed" Egyptian official