Renamo's war talk and Mozambique's peace prospects

This policy brief analyses Renamo’s capacity to wage war and the Mozambican government’s ability to contain insecurity.

Growing political tensions in Mozambique intensified in October 2013 when Mozambican government forces attacked the base of the Mozambican National Resistance Movement’s (Renamo) long-time leader Afonso Dhlakama. In reaction Renamo declared an end to the General Peace Agreement (GPA) which it had concluded with the Liberation Front of Mozambique (Frelimo) on October 4th 1992.

The deteriorating relationship between the country’s two main political forces has raised fears that Mozambique may return to civil war. Nonetheless, the country held largely peaceful municipal polls on 20 November 2013, which Renamo boycotted. This boycott ensured that many of the ruling party’s seats went unchallenged and has further alienated the party from local politics. As a result, Renamo’s political future hangs in the balance, particularly in light of Mozambique’s next general elections scheduled for October 2014 in which the party’s participation remains uncertain.

This policy brief analyses Renamo’s capacity to wage war and the Mozambican government’s ability to contain insecurity. It also assesses the long-term political future of Renamo.

Authors: Gwinyayi A. Dzinesa and Dimpho Motsamai