This policy paper provides an overview of a longer monograph that provides long-term forecasts of fragility in Africa. Using the International Futures system (IFs) data-analysis and forecasting tool, the paper provides a long-term forecast of 26 fragile African countries. They are chosen on the basis of comparative lists of fragile countries based on indicators that reflect the fragility syndrome. In conducting the forecast, the authors argue that fragility should be understood as a syndrome, or set of related conditions, that operates in a system that is mutually reinforcing.
Dr Jakkie Cilliers is executive director at the Institute for Security Studies.
Professor Tim Sisk is professor of international and comparative politics at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver
Events related to this Policy Paper
Exchange Visit with EU Institutions and Think Tanks, 22 October 2013
European Network of Political Foundations, 23 October 2013
Media coverage of this Policy Paper
Australian Broadcasting Corporation National Radio