Angola: At the Precipice

This paper aims to provide a set of updated and upgraded scenarios based upon developments since the publication of: Angola: Endgame or Stalemate?

In April this year, the Institute for Security studies published a paper entitled Angola: Endgame or Stalemate? in which the deterioration of the security situation in Angola was analysed. A number of possible scenarios were suggested, based upon the analysis. This paper aims to provide a set of updated and upgraded scenarios based upon developments since the publication of the previous paper.

The death of Alioune Blondin Beye, the United Nations Special Envoy to Angola, in an air crash in the Co?te d`Ivoire on 27 June, brought five years of unstinting efforts to save the Lusaka Peace Accords to an untimely end. Press speculation that his departure from the scene might deal a fatal blow to the peace, however, was mistaken. Tragically, as Mai?tre Beye himself was only too aware, events and decisions beyond his control or influence were hurrying Angola towards catastrophe. Indeed, at the time of his death, Beye was making a last attempt to induce the governments of two countries regarded as close to Unita`s Dr Savimbi - Togo and the Co?te d`Ivoire -` to press him to make those concessions necessary to preserve the peace. Only the previous day he had met Savimbi, who had told him that UNITA would not be meeting the UN deadline to hand over the control of the territory in the Central Highlands to the authorities in Luanda, despite the threat of wider UN sanctions.

As noted in the earlier paper, Savimbi knew that if he could avoid war and retain control of a significant part of Angola`s diamond wealth, the passage of time would tend to damage the position and cohesion of the authorities in Luanda. The fall in the oil price has seriously affected the Angolan economy, even though only a portion of that revenue finds its way into public accounts. Although vast and exciting discoveries are now being made in the deep waters off the Angolan coast, exploration world-wide is now outstripping demand and, barring a major conflict in the Middle East, the global oil price is likely to remain depressed for the foreseeable future. The recent economic downturn in the Far East and Southeast Asia merely reinforces this tendency. At the end of May, a team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recorded its concern about Angola`s growing balance of payments deficit, a distorted exchange rate, which sees the kwanza massively overvalued, and a lack of transparency in accounting for oil revenues. Angola currently produces some 750 000 barrels of oil a day, but only half of the state`s income from oil is reflected in the national budget.  

Authors

Jakkie Potgieter and Richard Cornwell, OASIS Programme, Institute for Security Studies