COVID-19 further complicates holding free and fair elections in Africa
Following elections in Guinea, Mali, Burundi and Malawi, 12 other elections are scheduled in Africa for later this year, despite the presence of COVID-19.
Africa is severely affected by the COVID-19 crisis. Not only has the pandemic impacted the continent’s development agenda, but it could also reverse the gains already made in terms of respecting the rule of law by holding regular, free, fair and transparent elections.
Since the start of the pandemic, some elections – such as those in Ethiopia, Somalia and Uganda – have been postponed. However, the legislative elections in Mali, the presidential and legislative elections in Burundi, and fresh presidential elections in Malawi were held despite the presence of COVID-19.
No fewer than 12 countries are scheduled to hold elections later this year. The question is whether they should go ahead as planned and under what conditions, given the increasing spread of the virus.
So far there is no clear evidence that holding elections have contributed to a spike in the number of COVID-19 cases. This is despite the fact that in many of the polls, such as in Mali and Burundi, social distancing and other precautionary measures were not observed.
So far there is no clear evidence that holding elections have contributed to a spike in the number of COVID-19 cases
These elections were in the most part marked by a low voter turnout. While COVID-19 was not the only factor, people’s fear of contracting the virus is thought to have contributed to the low level of voter participation.
Mixed results for elections held during COVID-19
The first election held on the continent during COVID-19 was in Guinea, where President Alpha Conde forged ahead with his controversial plan to combine legislative elections with a referendum to amend the constitution to allow him to run for a third term later this year.
The elections and referendum took place on 22 March and were marred by violent protests, as well as several deaths. According to official results, the constitutional amendment received over 90% approval, and the ruling party won a two-third majority (79/114 seats) in the National Assembly.
In Mali, legislative elections were held on 29 March in a tense atmosphere, marked by ongoing instability in the northern and central parts of the country. Soumaïla Cissé, the country’s main opposition leader, was kidnapped by jihadi insurgents while campaigning in the central region.
Cissé is still missing and Mali has seen sustained protests over the past few weeks over the country’s poor governance, including corruption and embezzlement, as well as the results of the legislative elections. President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta is under increasing pressure to institute fundamental reforms, with protesters demanding his resignation. There are also talks of forming a government of national unity.
Burundi’s presidential and legislative elections took place on 20 May, in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. The government downplayed its significance and few preventative measures were taken against the spread of the virus. Following former president Pierre Nkurunziza’s decision not to run for a fourth term, his chosen heir and the ruling party’s candidate, Évariste Ndayishimiye, won in the first round, without much of a surprise.
Political tensions around the elections were compounded by concerns over the government’s response, or lack thereof, to COVID-19. Nkurunziza died on 8 June, officially of a heart attack and allegedly after having contracted COVID-19. There are signs that Ndayishimiye is now taking the disease much more seriously.
Political tensions around the elections were compounded by concerns over the government’s response, or lack thereof, to COVID-19
Meanwhile, Malawi made history after opposition candidate Lazarus Chakwera defeated incumbent Peter Mutharika in a re-run of the May 2019 presidential elections. These had been annulled by the country’s High Court in February this year. Under Mutharika, the government’s response was characterised by a significant degree of denialism about the existence and seriousness of the virus.
Chakwera is now expected to place Malawi on a different governance path, including dealing with COVID-19 and its impact on the social and economic life of his country.
In all four cases, the common thread is the fact that election- and governance-related issues existed prior to the COVID-19 outbreak. Electoral processes made the observance of social distancing protocols difficult. This is also likely to be the case with the elections scheduled to take place in the second half of 2020.
Ethiopia and Somalia postpone elections
Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and under the state of emergency it has declared to fight the virus, Ethiopia has announced the postponement of elections initially scheduled for August 2020. The announcement has heightened existing political tensions and poses a further risk to peace and stability in the country. The recent assassination of singer Hachalu Hundessa and ensuing protests during which close to 250 people were killed and 3 500 arrested, are testimony to Ethiopia’s volatile political climate.
Somalia, with all its long-standing problems, has also opted to postpone its elections from November 2020 to August 2021. The national electoral body has cited ‘significant technical and security challenges’ as the reason for this.
The constitutional question arises in both these cases, as the incumbents would have to extend their mandate. This same challenge is posed in many other African countries currently pondering the option of postponing their elections.
If constitutional provisions to extend officials’ terms in office do not exist, consensual interim arrangements involving all sections of society must be found.
Many elections to take place before end-2020
Countries scheduled to hold elections before the end of 2020 include Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic (CAR), Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Gabon, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Niger, Seychelles and Tanzania. Each of these countries is facing distinct socio-political and economic challenges that the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated.
Guinea will be particularly important to monitor. Following the controversial referendum, Conde is set to run for a problematic third term. After boycotting the legislative elections and the referendum, opposition parties and civil society now argue that the constitutional text submitted to and voted for by Guineans during the referendum does not match the one that was promulgated in the government gazette. Allegedly, the regime has secretly, and therefore illegally, inserted additional provisions into the final constitutional text.
The October polls, if they take place, will therefore be extremely contentious. Any upheaval will also largely depend on the (economic) impact of COVID-19 on the country.
Niger is another case where a precarious security situation, coupled with recent revelations of the embezzlement of millions of dollars from the defence budget, has led to public outrage. Although incumbent Mahamadou Issoufou will not be running for re-election, the ruling party’s candidate, Mohamed Bazoum, who was minister of interior (one of the pillars in organising elections) until 29 June 2020, is the front runner.
Meanwhile, in Côte d’Ivoire the sudden death of ruling party candidate Amadou Gon Coulibaly on 8 July has also plunged the October 2020 polls into more uncertainty.
Presidential and legislative polls are also scheduled to take place in Burkina Faso – a country that has been the victim of increasing terrorist attacks over the past couple of years. A proposal to postpone the legislative elections due to the high levels of insecurity was shot down by parliamentarians earlier this month.
If elections go ahead, the relevant governments will have to ensure that they are held under optimal health security conditions
If elections go ahead in some of these countries, the relevant governments will have to ensure that they are held under optimal health security conditions. This means taking all possible precautions to prevent the spread of the virus during the electoral campaign and subsequent electoral process.
One of the biggest challenges for these elections, and therefore for their democratic nature, will be voter turnout. This is all the more important insofar as these polls will, in principle, be a kind of referendum on the governance of incumbent regimes, and, more particularly and immediately, their management of the pandemic.
Added to this is the fact that problems with, in particular, electoral management bodies will have to be resolved in any case. Many of them have a credibility deficit because of their perceived partiality and bias in favour of incumbents.
Elections observers under scrutiny
Election observation missions, including those of the African Union (AU), will also be affected by COVID-19. These have shown their limits, as was recently the case in Malawi, where observers had given the 2019 polls a green light before they were judged irregular by the courts. No observers were present during the recent re-run, nor were there any present at the presidential polls in Burundi, owing to COVID-19.
Because AU observer missions have failed on numerous occasions to point out massive electoral fraud, their relevance is being called into question more than ever before.
Given the economic and social reconstruction that Africa will need at the end of this pandemic, fair elections and the quality of leaders they will bring to power will be crucial to the continent’s recovery efforts.
