AU election watch: the latest on the candidates
Candidates for the position of AUC chairperson are campaigning in the run-up to the 27th AU summit in Kigali.
The most recent draft agenda of the 27th Assembly of the African Union (AU), to take place in Kigali, Rwanda on 18 and 17 July 2016, includes the election of the chairperson and deputy chairperson of the AU Commission (AUC).
During the preparatory meeting for the summit by the permanent representatives’ committee, the Economic Community of West African States unsuccessfully proposed removing the elections from the summit’s agenda.
The proposal was made because some in the AU feel that the nominations for the post of chairperson should be re-opened to allow for new candidates.
Some in the AU feel that the nominations for the post of chairperson should be re-opened |
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Even though the proposal was shot down, there is still uncertainty over the possibility of a deadlock, causing the elections’ postponement until the January 2017 summit to permit new candidates.
In the run-up to the AUC elections, the three candidates for chairperson have been campaigning to take over the top job at the AU. Despite the reservations among some, the profiles of the three candidates for the position of AUC chairperson are not radically different from those of the former and outgoing chairs of the AUC.
Among the candidates are two current ministers of foreign affairs and a former vice-president.
- Dr Specioza Wandira-Kazibwe is a former executive vice-president of Uganda (1994–2004). She is currently the United Nations (UN) Secretary-General's Special Envoy for HIV/AIDS in Africa.
- Dr Pelonomi Venson-Moitoi is currently Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Botswana. She held several ministerial government positions in the past: education; trade and industry; works and transport; and communications.
- Agapito Mba Mokuy is currently Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Equatorial Guinea. He was a special envoy of President Teodoro Obiang Nguema and occupied various positions in the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), where he worked for 18 years.
Clearly, the rumoured candidacies of former Senegalese minister Abdoulaye Bathily and former Tanzanian president Jakaya Kikwete did not make it to the final list.
In terms of the other candidates for the commissioner positions, there are some changes to the original list that was drawn up in April 2016. For example, Nigeria withdrew its candidate for the position of commissioner for peace and security. Egypt also removed its candidate for commissioner of political affairs. The final list is made up of 39 candidates: 26 men and 13 women.
Central Africa leads in terms of the number of candidacies, with 12 (eight coming from Cameroon) followed by Western Africa (nine), and Eastern Africa and Northern Africa (six candidates each). Southern Africa only presented two candidates.
Besides Egypt, the regional powers did not present many candidates. Algeria only nominated the incumbent Smaïl Chergui for re-election as commissioner for peace and security. Nigeria, South Africa and Ethiopia did not present a single candidate for the whole commission.
Gender equality to play a role in the elections
The elections are governed by the Rules of Procedure of the Assembly of Union, the Rules of Procedure of the Executive Council and the Statute of the Commission. First, the assembly elects the chairperson and the deputy chairperson. Then the executive council proceeds to the election of the commissioners, who are appointed by the assembly.
According to Article 6.3 of the Statute of the Commission, at least one commissioner of each region should be a woman. Gender balance at the two top positions of the commission is not a legal obligation as long this requirement is respected in the rest of the AUC.
 At least one commissioner of each region should be a woman |
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The candidates for positions in the commission are to be elected by two-thirds of the member states eligible to vote. The rules are as follows:
1. If no candidate obtains in the first ballot the two-third majority required, the ballot shall continue until one obtains it. If after the third ballot this remains inconclusive, the next ballot is restricted to the two candidates who obtained the greatest number of votes in the third round.
2. If after three further ballots, neither of the candidates obtains the majority required, the candidate with the least votes shall be obliged to withdraw.
3. If the remaining candidate fails to secure the required two-third majority, the chairperson of the assembly suspends the election.
4. The deputy chairperson shall take over the chairmanship on an interim basis until new elections are held.
Three possible scenarios
There are three likely scenarios. The first one is the election of a new AUC by the assembly, with the executive council going ahead and one of the candidates getting the position. This is a realistic option since predictions about the way heads of state may vote during the summit can be inaccurate. Most countries are said to be undecided. Moreover, both the chair of the AU, Chad’s President Idriss Déby, and the host, Rwandan President Paul Kagamé, are keen for the elections to take place in Kigali.
The second scenario is a lockdown on the election of the chairperson and none of the candidates’ getting the required majority. In such a case the election would be suspended and postponed. The assembly would set the date and modalities for a new election.
Efforts to block a successful win during the elections, however, require a great degree of politicking that would heighten the competitiveness of the AUC election process. This highlights and boosts the relevance of the chairperson in developments in Africa.
| The legality of introducing new candidates remains a contentious issue |
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The third scenario is that the heads of state accept the idea that there is a need to reopen the nominations and no voting takes place for those already on the table. The postponement camp would then be able to announce the candidacy of new contenders for the AUC positions and elections would take place at the next summit in January 2017.
The legality of introducing new candidates, however, remains a contentious issue as this is not addressed by the voting procedure for the election of members (Rule 42) of the Rules of Procedure of the Assembly of the Union of 2012. It is likely that new rules would have to be drawn up for the reopening of candidatures.
