Tanzania polls: will election observers be the last line of defence?

Domestic observers may not improve the quality of polls on 29 October, but could increase transparency and public awareness.

Published on 15 October 2025 in ISS Today

By

Nicodemus Minde
Researcher, East Africa Peace and Security Governance, ISS Nairobi

Tanzania’s general elections on 29 October will not just reveal the extent of the country’s democratic decline, but also expose the weaknesses of international and regional observation missions.

The political environment is marked by severe democratic regression, with the main opposition parties disqualified from the presidential race. That places the country’s ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi, on course for an easy, predicted landslide victory.

A combination of government clampdowns and citizen disillusionment has dampened interest and engagement in the electoral process, which is likely to result in low voter turnout. Over recent weeks, there has been increased state repression, abductions and enforced disappearances of government critics.

The media onslaught includes restrictive regulations and laws, which have led to a 25% decrease in media freedom since 2016, according to the Reporters Without Borders Press Freedom Index.

Last month, the country’s most popular online platform, JamiiForums, was suspended for 90 days for publishing content deemed misleading and insulting to the government and president. Since May, the social media platform X has been blocked. Some traditional media outlets have resorted to self-censorship and government praise to avoid falling foul of the administration.

The growing online clamour for protests on election day highlights the public’s frustration. However, a history of police crackdowns on protesters and the opposition will obstruct any such demonstrations, if they happen. All this happens as the treason trial of Tundu Lissu, leader of the main opposition party Chama cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (CHADEMA), continues

In this constrained context, some see election observers as the last line of defence. But can they really put pressure on the Tanzanian government to deliver free and fair elections?

There were concerns when it was reported that Tanzania would not allow observer missions from the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC). However, the government has since invited them to attend.

Repression and disillusionment have led to low citizen interest and engagement in the upcoming elections

Election observation has become an international norm. It is crucial for increasing public confidence, strengthening governance institutions, and upholding international democratic standards. The missions also boost government legitimacy by providing impartial assessments of electoral processes and results.

Many African countries welcome observers as part of their commitment to democracy and good governance, which are crucial norms for electoral processes. However, observer missions, especially those by the African Union (AU), as well as the EAC and SADC regional blocs, have increasingly been criticised for rubber-stamping elections that don’t meet democratic standards.

These missions often deliver vague and standardised statements on election outcomes – arguably to avoid becoming entangled in domestic politics or being perceived as infringing on states’ sovereignty. There are also concerns that harsh verdicts could trigger unrest. Observer missions – both international and regional – operate in a complex geopolitical landscape that requires balancing diplomacy with democracy, and stability with justice.

The AU observer mission is guided by the: African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance; the AU Declaration on the Principles Governing Democratic Elections in Africa; and the Guidelines for AU Electoral Observation and Monitoring Missions. Similarly, regional blocs all have principles and frameworks for election observation and assessment.

The AU and regional blocs are cautious in their verdicts of elections, despite blatant evidence of malpractice

The AU and its regions work together on election matters because they align with the principles of peace and governance. They do this through joint assessments and missions, information sharing, and harmonisation of observation tools, which avoids duplication.

Despite these efforts, the AU and regional blocs are cautious in their verdicts of elections even when there is blatant evidence of electoral malpractice. For example, SADC missions are often reluctant to condemn member states, as seen in the Mozambique (2024) and Zimbabwe (2023) elections.

The AU sometimes presents its missions as political or mediation efforts rather than neutral technical observations. This blurs the lines between oversight and diplomacy, as was evident in Nigeria and Senegal’s 2019 polls. Other challenges include weak institutional capacity to enforce election norms and the disconnect between the AU’s electoral engagement and its early warning system.

In June 2025, the AU’s pre-election assessment in Tanzania involved meetings with government officials, election stakeholders, political party forums, and security officials, among other stakeholders. The findings and recommendations are yet to be released and will first be submitted to the AU Commission Chairperson for consideration.

Still, the mission led by former South African deputy president Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka was quick to commend Tanzania’s government, saying it was impressed by the significant electoral reforms.

Domestic civil society observer missions have become important alternatives in election observation

Domestic observer missions by civil society, human rights organisations and grassroots groups have become important alternatives in election observation. In difficult contexts, these observers document malpractice and carry out parallel voter tabulation, as was done in Mozambique and Zimbabwe. Tanzania Elections Watch – a regional civil society initiative – was established to monitor and document the electoral process during Tanzania’s last presidential polls in 2020.

Given the weaknesses of regional missions, approved domestic election observers in Tanzania can help document violations and irregularities. While this may not necessarily make the elections free and fair, it will help increase transparency and public awareness.

The AU and regional bodies should also document irregularities occurring during the 29 October general elections. Their recommendations should be used to call for long-term institutional reforms that will increase future electoral integrity and accountability.

Register here to join the 16 October ISS online seminar, when local and regional experts will discuss ‘Democracy in trouble: Tanzania’s 2025 general elections’


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