Can Zambia capitalise on intensifying great power rivalry?
To advance development while safeguarding its sovereignty, Zambia must navigate competition from China, the EU and the US.
Published on 08 December 2025 in
ISS Today
By
Diplomatic overtures and strategic deals in Southern Africa have set the tone for a packed international itinerary in the neighbourhood recently. While South Africa’s November G20 Summit grabbed global attention, Zambia was being thrust into a global power rivalry between Beijing, Brussels and Washington.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang visited Zambia to cement a US$1.4 billion deal to revamp the Tanzania-Zambia Railway Authority (TAZARA), a critical artery linking Zambia’s mineral wealth to global markets.
At the same time, Zambia was being courted by the European Union’s (EU) Global Gateway agenda, which is mobilising US$2.3 billion in sustainable development for the Lobito Corridor. And by Washington’s rebooted health partnership, a US$1.5 billion five-year programme to bolster disease prevention, health-system capacity and maternal and child health services.
This sudden diplomatic outreach highlights Zambia’s growing strategic importance. It must use this to advance its development and foreign policy priorities without compromising its sovereignty and national interests. Infrastructure-led growth, environmental stewardship, and sustainable development must be carefully balanced.
Each actor pursues distinct identities – although all of them put Zambia’s mineral wealth at the centre of their relationships with Lusaka. But in their development approaches, China typically shows infrastructure prowess, while the EU focuses on sustainability and governance. President Donald Trump’s America-first policy is anchored in Washington’s greater value for money.
This moment offers a compelling lens to examine how Zambia, an asymmetrically weaker state geopolitically, can optimally manage the complexities of 21st-century geopolitical interests while mitigating superpower rivalry risks.
The TAZARA project, originally built in the 1970s, epitomises China’s infrastructural diplomacy in Zambia. The railway is a Cold War relic turned critical artery for copper and cobalt exports from Africa’s second-largest copper producer, which passes through Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
Zambia should keep multiple options open while striking deals that deliver tangible benefits at home
Over two decades, China has solidified its foothold by building airports, acquiring mines and financing infrastructure, ensuring mineral resources flow on China’s terms.
More than a transit route, TAZARA symbolises Beijing’s industrial vision, connecting Zambia’s mineral exports to global markets via Dar es Salaam, backed by Chinese financing, technology and operational oversight.
It supports China’s efforts to secure critical mineral supply chains for global tech industries, including its growing electric vehicle sector, keeping Zambia firmly within Beijing’s geopolitical calculus in its Belt and Road Initiative prism.
However, this promise is tempered by environmental concerns linked to Chinese industrial operations, notably recent chemical spillages contaminating Zambian rivers. Zambia must address the tension between infrastructure-driven growth and environmental sustainability with China to protect communities and natural assets.
While successive Zambian governments have long called for revitalising both TAZARA and the Lobito Corridor, real momentum has come only in the past four years as geopolitical competition intensified.
TAZARA’s revamp follows the United States (US)-led Lobito Corridor Project launched less than five years ago, reinforced by former president Joe Biden’s 2024 Angola visit, cementing Washington’s strategic interest in linking the Central African Copperbelt to the Atlantic.
Li Qian’s visit was met with the US Embassy reminding Zambians that after TAZARA opened, Washington had to rehabilitate a ‘prematurely decrepit’ railway system.
Overlapping interests in Zambia translate into a rare strategic opportunity and a heightened responsibility
In the post-US Agency for International Development era, Washington has recalibrated its engagement, moving beyond traditional aid towards strategic partnerships. The $1.5 billion five-year grant to support Zambia’s health sector (despite a US$50 million aid cut in May over corruption charges) signals resilience and a recognition of the value of soft power.
(This as Zambia’s citizens face punitive tourist visa rules to enter America, paying bonds of up to US$15 000.)
Contrastingly, the EU’s involvement via the Lobito Corridor offers an alternative paradigm, emphasising transparency, governance reforms and sustainable investment standards. At the November EU-Lobito Corridor Business Forum in Lusaka, Zambian and European leaders focused on building partnerships in energy, agriculture and local mineral value addition, seen as vital for Zambia’s future.
While the EU’s approach is less about rapid infrastructure rollout and more about fostering institutional capacity and equitable economic benefits, it risks being overshadowed by China and the United States’ scale and speed. Nevertheless, this governance-first model aligns with emerging global demands for responsible investment, potentially positioning the EU as a key normative actor in Zambia’s development.
Lusaka faces myriad choices, including a growing cast of emerging powers such as Israel, Qatar’s US$19 billion investment interest and private sector interests from global banks and African business leaders like Aliko Dangote and Tony Elumelu. It must shape terms of engagement rather than be swept up in great-power competition.
Its smartest foreign policy path is strategic hedging. It should keep multiple options open while striking deals that deliver tangible benefits at home, from industrial growth and job creation to stronger environmental safeguards, without tying itself to any single partner.
Its positive external interest is partly driven by Zambia’s removal from the default list by S&P Global Ratings, which upgraded its credit rating due to significant progress in debt restructuring, better fiscal discipline, and growing investor confidence.
Lusaka must integrate a clear national development strategy into its foreign policy
Zambia’s economic growth is projected to reach over 6% in 2026, driven primarily by recovery and expansion in mining and agriculture, supported by increased copper production and efforts to diversify the economy. However, it needs to recover from a climate-induced energy crisis that negatively impacts economic development.
For Zambia, these overlapping interests translate into a rare strategic opportunity and a heightened responsibility. The country is equidistant from the Atlantic and Indian oceans and has a connected regional transport system.
This pivotal geographic position, combined with its rich mineral endowment and track record of peace and stability, enables it to negotiate terms that enhance local value addition, technology transfer and environmental protection.
President Hakainde Hichilema’s foreign policy is anchored in two pillars – peace, security and stability; and economic diplomacy. Lusaka must integrate a clear national development strategy into its foreign policy, explicitly defining its strategic interests based on the current context.
This involves identifying key ministries like foreign affairs and international trade, similar to South Asian models, to coordinate, strengthen and balance foreign engagements while enhancing domestic value.
Achieving this requires improved scenario planning, regulatory capacity and environmental oversight through a well-aligned and updated foreign policy.
That means taking what’s best from each partner: harnessing Chinese infrastructure financing, insisting on governance and sustainability in line with EU standards and integrating health and social investments offered by the US. This will allow Lusaka to nimbly navigate shifting geopolitical currents, shaping external engagements to advance national priorities and safeguard its ecological and societal well-being.
Zambia’s ability to balance external interests and channel them towards homegrown priorities will determine whether global power competition becomes a catalyst for resilient, inclusive development – or entrenches new vulnerabilities.
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