Ravalomanana's gamble pays off, but Hery's bigger challenge now is Rajoelina

Madagascar has made steady progress towards stability, but politics got a little murky this week following the prime minister's resignation.

While the rest of us were lounging on the beach or just scoffing turkey, things were moving fast in Madagascar.

On 12 December, Madagascar’s former president, Marc Ravalomanana, was still languishing in captivity in a military base at Antsiranana, on the northern tip of the island. Seven days later he was participating in a national reconciliation conference between President Hery Rajaonarimampianina and the country’s four ex-presidents.

Several South Africans were instrumental in that rapid change of fortune, both for Ravalomanana and for Madagascar. Ravalomanana had been held in detention since he was apprehended a few days after flying back into the country clandestinely and illegally on 12 October, after five years of exile in South Africa.

December 12 was the day that former South African constitutional development minister, Roelf Meyer, and former Institute for Democracy in Africa executive Ivor Jenkins arrived on the island. Meyer helped negotiate South Africa’s transition, and he and Jenkins have formed a team that tries to apply the lessons learnt from that experience to other conflicts. Former deputy minister of international relations, Ebrahim Ebrahim, is also part of the team.

So far, so good. Then the narrative got a little murkier

Meyer and Jenkins visited Ravalomanana in detention; and, in Antananarivo, the man who had ousted him in a coup in March 2009, Andry Rajoelina, to hear their demands and grievances. Then they met President Hery Rajaonarimampianina. They evidently conveyed the advice that to maintain the momentum – and the credibility – of the national reconciliation process he had embarked upon, he should draw in these two former presidents.

Hery (as we shall call him for short) had been a proxy candidate for Rajoelina in the 2013 elections, which neither Rajoelina nor Ravalomanana were allowed to contest. But they had since fallen out, mainly because Hery refused to be Rajoelina’s puppet – as the latter evidently expected. The two men had not met since March.

Hery had already met with Madagascar’s two other former presidents, Albert Zafy and Didier Ratsiraka, in his reconciliation initiative. That was easy enough, as both are now rather impotent politically. But he was avoiding the more threatening, more active ex-presidents.

He was advised to meet all four ex-presidents together if he was serious about reconciliation. On 15 December, Hery flew north to meet Ravalomanana in detention, and two days later met Rajoelina. Both were good meetings, apparently. Two days later, on 19 December, Hery did, as advised, meet all four ex-presidents under the formal auspices of the Council of Christian Churches in Madagascar (FFKM), which has been pursuing national reconciliation for years.

The five leaders committed themselves to national reconciliation and agreed to meet again on 13 January. In the meantime Ravalomanana – who had been allowed out of detention to attend the meeting and then returned to the north – would be released.

Some think this suggests that Hery intends appointing Ravalomanana as prime minister

He was back in his home in the capital by Christmas; technically under house arrest, though in practice free.

As a goodwill gesture, Hery also released Ravalomanana’s bodyguard and four civil aviation officials, who had been arrested for alleged complicity in his return to the island.

This was apparently to pave the way to grant Ravalomanana amnesty; firstly for the charge of entering the country illegally on 12 October, which was hovering over his head.

Secondly, to get amnesty for the conviction and life sentence handed down to him while he was in exile for complicity in his presidential guards shooting dead scores of demonstrators in 2009, while he was still president.

These developments, relayed by people to the negotiations, were all very positive. They were the culmination of very hard groundwork by several actors, most of them South African. Minister of State Security David Mahlobo played his part, visiting Madagascar a few times as chairperson – deputising for President Jacob Zuma – of the Southern African Development Community’s troika for politics, defence and security.

The troika, comprising also Namibia and Lesotho, had last visited Madagascar in late November and had then written a strong report urging Hery to move decisively towards national reconciliation by transcending his stand-offs with Ravalomanana and Rajoelina.

But perhaps the key player, as even one previously very sceptical member of the Ravalomanana camp put it, was Gert Grobler, South Africa’s ambassador ‘who worked tirelessly to bring about reconciliation.’ Grobler has been the éminence grise behind much of the reconciliation initiative.

Most players and observers also agree now that Ravalomanana’s precipitous return to the island, which at the time was widely condemned as reckless, had in fact broken the logjam. So far, so good. Then this week the narrative got a little murkier. On Monday, on the eve of Hery’s second meeting with the four ex-presidents, his Prime Minister Roger Kolo tendered his resignation, along with his government’s. Hery accepted it. The ostensible reason was the government’s failure to end frequent power cuts and to deliver on other promises of improvements to daily life.

Whether that will satisfy Ravalomanana’s large ambition remains to be seen

But some Malagasy politicians, ever-suspicious, suspected there a deeper reason for the government’s resignation, related to his national reconciliation initiative. Was this a move to distract attention from it and derail it? Others thought just the opposite, since Ravalomanana’s name has been put forward by a large bloc of 118 members of Parliament as a possible successor to Kolo.

Some observers think this suggests that Hery intends appointing Ravalomanana as prime minister, which would be a big step forward in his reconciliation initiative. However diplomats on the island disagree with this interpretation, saying that Hery’s bigger reconciliation challenge now is Rajoelina, as Hery has developed a ‘comfortable’ relationship with Ravalomanana (whose party, by the way, has been supporting him in Parliament all along).

They say appointing Ravalomanana as prime minister would infuriate Rajoelina, who was already smarting about the appointment of Kolo, as Hery had originally promised him that a member of his faction would get the job.

The diplomatic community and other negotiators seem to agree that Hery should consult widely before appointing a prime minister who is acceptable to all, including to Rajoelina. Not to mention one that is more competent and honest. They also say that although Kolo’s resignation has created an opportunity for Hery to move forward on national reconciliation, it was in any case a good move in itself. Kolo had been linked to shady deals with business people and the Malagasy people were becoming increasingly agitated by the government’s poor performance on delivery of services. (Sound familiar?)

The likes of Grobler, Meyer and Jenkins are hoping that Hery’s reconciliation initiative will lead to a South African Codesa-like national convention in April or May, with a broad representation of political and civil society leaders meeting to thrash out once and for all the political, economic, social and ethnic tensions that have destabilised the island’s politics for so long.

They suggest Hery should give Ravalomanana, the once-successful businessman, the chair of the economic committee at this ‘Codesa’ (Convention for a Democratic South Africa). That would kill two birds with one stone, bringing him into the tent, while also tapping his expertise. Whether that will satisfy Ravalomanana’s large ambition remains to be seen. But Madagascar, despite some serious wobbles and a few detours, at least now seems to be on track towards stability.

Peter Fabricius, Foreign Editor, Independent Newspapers, South Africa

Related content