How Sudan’s war is destroying its development future
Modelling shows that the civil war is pushing an already fragile development trajectory towards systemic collapse.
Over 150 000 people have been killed and nearly 15 million displaced since Sudan’s civil war began in April 2023, creating the largest humanitarian disaster in the world. The Office of the United Nations (UN) High Commissioner for Human Rights says almost 25 million people face food insecurity, while 19 million lack access to safe water and sanitation.
Alongside these visible signs of devastation is a development crisis, which began well before 2023. For decades, the country has reflected a paradox: abundant potential alongside persistent underperformance. Sudan has considerable natural resources, vast agricultural potential, strategic access to Red Sea shipping routes and a large, youthful population.
Yet these opportunities have been constrained by recurrent conflict, political instability, South Sudan’s 2011 secession, international sanctions and global shocks like COVID-19. Its location along a conflict belt stretching from the Sahel to Yemen also exposes it to regional insecurity, leading to periodic friction with two of its most consequential neighbours, Egypt and Ethiopia.
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Sudan’s location along a conflict belt
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The 2023 war has deepened these constraints and reversed years of developmental gains. A quantitative assessment of the war’s costs by the UN Development Programme and Institute for Security Studies’ African Futures team depicts an economy trapped in a cycle of contraction, rising poverty and widening inequality.
The analysis confirms that violent conflict is the single most binding constraint on Sudan’s development, directly undermining all dimensions of human development. The war has disrupted the delivery of health and education services, damaged market infrastructure and weakened production systems across agriculture, manufacturing and services.
An already fragile development trajectory is being pushed towards systemic collapse. The study estimates that Sudan lost US$6.4 billion in 2023 alone due to the conflict, equivalent to a per capita income loss of about US$500, pushing seven million more people into extreme poverty.
Average income levels have fallen to 1992 levels, while extreme poverty is worse than in the 1980s
Average income has fallen to 1992 levels, while extreme poverty has worsened beyond its incidence in the 1980s. On its current trajectory, Sudan’s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in 2043 will be below the 2023 level and worse than in the 1960s.
At this rate, Sudan will only meet UN Sustainable Development Goal 1 – the elimination of extreme poverty – towards the end of the century. The country will show a reversal of progress in poverty eradication, resilience and inclusive growth, deepening vulnerabilities and complicating recovery.
These projections are based on a development trajectory that assumes the conflict ends in 2026. Should the war persist until 2030, Sudan’s economy would incur an additional US$34.5 billion in GDP losses relative to the current trajectory by 2043. GDP per capita would decline by an extra US$1 750, and 34 million more Sudanese would fall into extreme poverty.
That outcome would entrench humanitarian crises, erode state capacity and close the window for meaningful recovery. Ending the conflict is the most critical precondition for restoring livelihoods, rebuilding the economy and reopening development pathways.
Should the war persist until 2030, the window for meaningful recovery of Sudan’s economy will close
Sudan’s future will not be decided by a single agreement or funding injection. Rather, it will depend on whether peace holds long enough for governance to be rebuilt and whether governance improves enough for investments to translate into development gains.
An illustrative scenario – the Sudan Rising pathway – models an end to the conflict this year alongside reasonable progress in education, health, demographics, governance, manufacturing, infrastructure and financial flows. Forecasts suggest that the dividends of peace and reconstruction could be enormous.
In this scenario, Sudan’s GDP could expand by US$19.3 billion by 2043, with the economy growing at 5% on average compared to 2.4% under current projections. The country could lift 17.3 million more people out of extreme poverty in this scenario.
Achieving peace requires the commitment of all stakeholders. Despite considerable diplomatic efforts, the main challenge is unlocking a political strategy to tackle the country’s deep ideological divisions and competing mediation efforts.
Despite several discussions and peace negotiations, including the Jeddah framework facilitated by the United States (US) and Saudi Arabia, the war continues. More recent diplomatic efforts, including through the US, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and United Arab Emirates (the Quad) and African Union-led Quintet (with the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, UN, European Union and League of Arab States), have yet to produce the desired outcome.
The failure of these negotiations and agreements emanates from deep divisions in and among Sudanese political and civilian groups. It also reflects the fragmented overlapping efforts by external diplomatic actors with competing interests, all apparently working at cross-purposes.
Successful mediation will require a unified architecture linking ceasefire, humanitarian access, civilian dialogue, accountability and a political transition that assigns specific functions to different diplomatic efforts. For instance, the Jeddah framework could focus on ensuring a ceasefire, while the Quad could use its influence to limit external military support. The Quintet could lead a process to navigate Sudan’s political transition through an all-inclusive political dialogue.
National resources allocation and accountability are core to peace, but perhaps the most complex to resolve
Peace efforts must also prioritise agreements to protect critical infrastructure, such as markets, hospitals and water infrastructure in areas susceptible to famine. Oil rigs, which are the store of the resources needed after the conflict ends, also need protection.
The allocation of national resources and accountability will be core to negotiations and perhaps among the most complex issues to resolve, as they are linked to Sudan’s fragmentation as a country. That means transparency about revenue collection and sharing, and accountability, will be key to a lasting agreement.
The international community must act decisively to demolish the enterprise surrounding the war. Cross-border networks supplying arms, facilitating illicit gold trade and financing the conflict, together with external political patronage, undermine Sudan’s peace efforts.
Ultimately, peace should be tied to economic reconstruction and an accountability framework that strengthens governance, revitalises productive sectors and expands economic opportunities. Sudan could then transition from fragility towards recovery and from potential to long-term transformation.
This article was first published in Africa Tomorrow, the blog of the ISS’ African Futures and Innovation programme.
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