Côte d'Ivoire presidential election: what's at stake for stability?
The absence of large-scale violence during the upcoming presidential election in Côte d'Ivoire does not guarantee future stability.
On Sunday, 25 October, Ivorians will go to the polls to elect their president. In 2010, the elections had plunged Côte d’Ivoire into an armed conflict resulting in 3 000 deaths.
It is unlikely that this year’s poll will trigger such large-scale violence, but that won’t be enough to turn the process into a democratic success, or to guarantee future stability.
As highlighted in the latest ISS West Africa Report, three main dynamics characterise the Ivorian political scene in the run-up to the election.
First the ruling coalition, the Rally of Houphouetists for Democracy and Peace (Rassemblement des houphouëtistes pour la démocratie et la paix, or RHDP), which supports outgoing President Alassane Ouattara, is in a strong position and aims at a first-round victory.
Second, the Ivorian Popular Front (Front populaire ivoirien, or FPI), is deeply divided between two factions with diametrically opposed views about the political strategy that ought to be adopted. This is the party of former President Laurent Gbagbo – who is currently awaiting the opening of his trial at the International Criminal Court (ICC) next month on 10 November.
The RHDP is in a strong position and aims at a first-round victory in Côte d’Ivoire
Finally, the opposition lacks cohesion. It is composed of independant candidates and two main coalitions, namely the Alliance of Democratic Forces (Alliance des forces démocratiques, or AFD) and the National Coalition for Change (Coalition nationale pour le changement, or CNC). While the AFD is participating in the electoral process, the CNC and one independant candidate are contesting the conditions under which the election is being organised, and are calling into question the legitimacy of the process.
In fact, two contestants have withdrawn from the race. Amara Essy, the former secretary general of the Organisation for African Unity, and Mamadou Koulibaly, former president of the national assembly and candidate of the party Freedom and Democracy for the Republic (Liberté et démocratie pour la République, or LIDER), signalled their respective withdrawal on 6 and 9 October. They claim that conditions for a fair, free and transparent election are not being met. A dissenting branch of the FPI, led by Aboudramane Sangaré, has also been calling for a boycott since 10 August.
Some opposition players have been particularly critical of the Independent Electoral Commission (Commission électorale indépendante, or CEI), which it describes as unbalanced and unrepresentative. They argue that nine of the 17 members of the commission are in favour of the ruling coalition. The lack of consensus regarding the commission makes it more likely that the results will be contested.
Unequal access to state media is another issue that some within the opposition have voiced. The High Authority for Audiovisual Communication (HACA) announced in its latest report that the ruling coalition was allocated 71.31% of all the broadcast time given to political parties, against 28.69% for the opposition parties. They say this is yet another example of an unfair electoral environment.
A portion of the opposition has also criticised the CEI’s decision to extend the distribution of voter cards by four days, following a request from the ruling coalition. This decision contravenes the provisions of the Electoral Code, and the opposition has linked it to the intention of the RHDP to inflate voters’ turnout.
The conditions and organisation of the elections are unlikely to be overhauled 48 hours before the poll. That certain coalitions and candidates are challenging aspects of the election means there is a greater risk for localised instabilities to occur. It also points to the likelihood of the results being contested and the legitimacy of the elected government being questioned, should the RHDP candidate be re-elected.
The large number of opponents participating in the first round on Sunday should split the opposition’s electorate in a way that favours the incumbent president. Alassane Ouattara therefore appears to be the favourite and the stakes don’t seem to be high in this election.
While all the attention is turned to the 25 October ballot, these immediate electoral concerns must, however, be seen in the context of medium- and long-term stability issues.
The next five years will be crucial for consolidating peace in Côte d'Ivoire
Matters such as economic development; justice; disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration and social cohesion are currently receiving a lot of attention, even if progress has been uneven. Other long-standing, unresolved issues that must also be examined carefully include questions of nationality and rural land tenure. These were identified as some of the root causes of Ivorian conflict long before the post-electoral crisis.
Effective responses must be found to address these underlying issues. If not, the dynamics whereby the political and security situation should be normalised will likely deteriorate.
The 2015 presidential election is yet to take place but many are already focusing on the 2020 election, where the stakes will be higher. The coming five years will be crucial for consolidating peace in Côte d'Ivoire. This period holds many risks and uncertainties.
The first is the future of the RHDP. Tensions have already arisen within and between the coalition member parties. These are likely to intensify in the run-up to the legislative and local elections and could result in serious power struggles ahead of the 2020 presidential election.
The second factor, which will have a significant impact on the course of the next five years, is the outcome of Laurent Gbagbo’s ICC trial. Whether it results in a conviction or acquittal, the verdict will influence the balance of power within the FPI and affect its political support in the opposition.
Finally, if legitimate demands of the opposition continue to be ignored by the government elect, this could further polarise some actors and groupings. The latter may be tempted to resort to violence and present it as the only alternative.
In the aftermath of this year’s elections, lasting peace must remain the priority of the next government and of the entire Ivorian political class, which it seems, have not learnt all the lessons of long years of political crisis.
Lori-Anne Théroux-Bénoni, Office head and Senior Researcher, Ella Abatan, Junior Fellow and Armande Jeanine Kobi, Junior Fellow, Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis Division, ISS Dakar
