This report explores Zimbabwe’s prospects to 2040 under three scenarios. The Current Path presents Zimbabwe’s development trajectory given a continuation of current policies and practices, while two alternative scenarios, Great Zimbabwe and Things Fall Apart, help frame the uncertainty around the country’s future. Great Zimbabwe is an ambitious but reasonable scenario that shows the kind of development Zimbabwe may experience if pro-growth policies are implemented. In Things Fall Apart, insecurity and low-level conflict spread and human development outcomes decline dramatically.
About the authors
Lily Welborn is a researcher at ISS, Pretoria. Previously, she was a research consultant at the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. She has written/contributed to long-term trends reports on African security and development concerns and specialises in transnational crime and climate change.
Dr Jakkie Cilliers is the founder of ISS, chairman of the ISS Board of Trustees and head of the African Futures and Innovation Programme at ISS, Pretoria. He is an Extraordinary Professor at the Centre for Human Rights and the Department of Political Sciences, Faculty of Humanities at the University of Pretoria, and a well-known author and analyst.
Stellah Kwasi is a researcher in the African Futures and Innovation Programme at ISS, Pretoria. Before joining the ISS she was a research affiliate at the Frederick S. Pardee Center of International Futures at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Colorado.
Picture: Harare Photographer/GroundUp