South Sudan: Origins and implications of emerging (in)security dynamics

This situation report provides explanations for the state of affairs in South Sudan and the implications of the emerging dynamics for the future.

On 9 January 2011 the people of South Sudan in all parts of the world voted in an historic referendum to decide the fate of the semi-autonomous region of the country then know as Sudan. The referendum was in fulfilment of one of the major requirements of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which brought an end to more than two decades of hostilities between the North and South and one of Africa’s most violent civil wars – the second Sudan civil war. In the run-up to the referendum, a number of provocative political exchanges between the North and South, as well as logistical challenges, had cast doubt on the possible occurrence and peacefulness of the event. Its orderly and generally peaceful nature therefore drew the commendations of the international community for the commitment of both the North and South to peace in Sudan. An overwhelming 98,83 per cent of Southern voters cast their ballots in favour of separation.1 Doubts still existed among the international community in the immediate aftermath of the referendum due to suspicions about  Khartoum’s possible response to the choice of separation. It therefore came as a pleasant relief when even before the official announcement of the results, President Omar al-Bashir declared his respect for the choice of the people of South Sudan.  

Authors: Andrews Atta-Asamoah, Roba D. Sharamo and Philip M. Mwanzia