Forecasting South African election results

The lack of accountability within South African politics and increasing voter apathy are important considerations that detract from growth and stability prospects.

This policy brief provides additional detail on the Bafana Bafana, Mandela Magic and Nation Divided scenarios first set out in the ‘South African futures 2030’ study released by the Institute for Security Studies in February 2014. The focus in this publication is on possible national election results in 2014, 2019, 2024 and 2029.

Amongst many considerations, four factors appear decisive in setting South Africa on the political scenarios described. The role and leadership of the African National Congress is central to all, but developments within the Congress of South African Trade Unions, which is profoundly split along political and ideological lines and is facing the loss of its largest member, could imply the start of new political alignments.

Additional factors are rising voter apathy and the ability of opposition parties to mobilise the young black vote in their favour.

The lack of accountability within South African politics and increasing voter apathy are important considerations that detract from growth and stability prospects, and the policy brief concludes with a number of strategic recommendations.

About the Author

Jakkie Cilliers is the Executive Director of the Institute for Security Studies. He is an Extraordinary Professor in the Centre of Human Rights and the Department of Political Sciences, Faculty Humanities at the University of Pretoria. He also serves on the International Advisory Board of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) in Switzerland and as a member of the board of advisers of the Center on International Conflict Resolution, Columbia University, New York.