Burundi: Elections without competition and no peace without participation

This policy brief aims to discuss the current situation in Burundi.

The words of Rona Peligal, Africa director at Human Rights Watch, could not be more true: ‘Burundi is at a dangerous crossroads and clearly ill-intentioned people on both sides of the political divide are seeking to exploit recent tensions. The government should end unnecessary restrictions on basic freedoms, and those fomenting violence should stop.’

With four out of five polls already done, so much seems to have gone wrong with the much talked-about elections in Burundi. The process started on a high note with more than 3.5 million Burundians eligible to vote at the 7 000 polling stations made available across the country. Voting was originally scheduled to start on 21 May 2010, but was delayed until 24 May due to a shortage of ballot papers. Election participation began well with a 91.7 per cent turnout, but this positive outcome was short-lived.

When election results became public the opposition parties cried foul, eventually resulting in a complete withdrawal of opposition candidates from the presidential elections. This left the process at an impasse with three rounds of elections still to be completed: the National Assembly elections on 23 July 2010; the Senate elections on 28 July 2010; and the Hill polls on 7 September 2010.

The withdrawal of the opposition from the presidential elections resulted in a decline in voter turnout. Of the 76.9 per cent of the population who voted, 90 per cent voted for President Pierre Nkurunziza, thereby electing him to another five-year term. The obvious point is that the current ruling party will obtain a two-thirds majority in parliament after these elections, which will transform the state from a multiparty system to essentially one-party dominance, which ultimately could have a highly detrimental effect on peace and democracy in Burundi.

That is what is playing out: the electoral commission announced on 27 July 2010 that the ruling National Council for the Defence of Democracy - Forces for the Defence of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) had won 81 of the 106 seats in the National Assembly available in the 23 July 2010 legislative election. In the subsequent Senate elections the CNDD-FDD won 32 of the 34 seats.

This policy brief aims to discuss the current situation in Burundi. Topics under consideration in this brief include: reactions to the communal elections; how did we get here; possible future scenarios, including a return to rebellion, maintenance of the status quo, the gradual deterioration of the political arena and renewed eruptions of (large-scale) violence; and, lastly, considering what should be done in terms of short-term engagement and long-term engagement.

Authors: Henri Boshoff and Ralph Ellermann