Peace and Security Council Report No 41
This month our researchers in Addis Ababa and Pretoria have produced country analyses on Libya and Zimbabwe, a security analysis on the Lord’s Resistance Army and an open page article on Central Africa’s Regional Economic Community and Sub-Regional Economic Communities.
With regard to Libya, the analyst focuses on the period following the July elections. He notes that the killing of the American Ambassador in Benghazi on 11 September, the initial uncertainties concerning the quest for a new Prime Minister and the composition of the National Assembly are evidence of a continuing transitional period of instability. On a positive note he records that the death of Ambassador Stevens was denounced by tens of thousands of Libyans in Tripoli and Benghazi in what was a clear demonstration that Libyans, generally, refuse to be associated with displays of violence against foreigners in their country.
The analyst also points to looming problems concerning the minority Berbers and their future role in Libyan society. The vast number of tribal militias, the danger of terrorist groups taking advantage of any security weaknesses, and the enormous number of small arms and other weaponry that is in circulation in the country also adds to the problem of ensuring future stability.
On the subject of Zimbabwe, the analyst focuses on the new draft constitution and the lead-up to forthoming elections. He notes that the adoption of the new constitution and its acceptability to the people of Zimbawe is central to the Global Political Agreement’s goal of creating an environment for the conduct of a peaceful, free and fair election of a government that enjoys legitimacy through popular consent. The analyst also points to the need for the establishment of a credible, acceptable Electoral Commission and the presence of impartial election observers. Despite some initial positive developments, the absence of a strong independent, non-partisan, news media network in Zimbabwe also tends to dampen efforts to encourage a fair and relatively objective approach to electoral participation.
The analyst notes that the impact of the influential security sector could potentially determine the success or failure of the Government of National Unity. In the meantime, failure by ZANU-PF and the two MDC factions to reach agreement could further delay Zimbabwe’s constitutional transition in line with the SADC-brokered GPA.
The Security Analysis about the Lord’s Resistance Army notes that despite the AU’s coordinated military initiative against the LRA, attacks by this terrorist organisation have not diminished. The analyst points to the capture of some LRA leaders and observes that Joseph Kony appears to have become isolated from his commanders. He also highlights the danger presented by DRC troops being relocated from areas vulnerable to LRA attacks in order to contend with M23 rebels in the eastern DRC.
The Open Page article provides background on Central Africa’s Regional Economic Communities and Sub-Regional Economic Communities. The focus is on the Economic Community of Central African States, the Central African Economic and Monetary Community and the Economic Community of the Great Lakes Countries.
Duke Kent-Brown (Editor)
