Envisioning a healthy future: Africa’s shifting burden of disease

This paper explores the effects on human development if Africa achieves health-related targets by 2030.

Africa has the highest prevalence of communicable diseases in the world. In 2015, more than three times as many people died from AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa, and more than ten times as many people died from malaria as in the rest of the world combined. Non-communicable diseases are also increasing on the continent. This paper uses the International Futures forecasting system to explore the effects on human development of Africa’s achieving targets 3.3 and 3.4 of the Sustainable Development Goals: respectively, eradication of selected communicable diseases, and a reduction in premature deaths from non-communicable diseases by one-third by 2030.

About the authors

Kanishka Narayan is a research assistant at the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver where he is pursuing an MA degree in global finance, trade and economic integration to be completed in June of 2017. Until September 2016, he was a consultant with the African Futures and Innovation programme at the Institute for Security Studies.

Zachary Donnenfeld is a researcher with the African Futures and Innovation programme at the ISS. Previously, he worked at the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures and the Environment Food and Conflict Laboratory at the University of Denver. Zach received his MA in global finance, trade and economic integration from the Josef Korbel School of International Studies in June 2015.

This paper forms part of the ISS series on the Sustainable Development Goals. Other papers in the series:

Refreshing Africa's future: prospects for achieving universal WASH access by 2030

Unlocking Africa’s potential: The relationship between effective governance and poverty