Emerging giant: potential pathways for Ethiopia to 2040

Ethiopia’s government should focus on four key priorities to achieve development targets.

This report presents an integrated assessment of Ethiopia’s future prospects using the International Futures modelling platform. The bulk of the report presents the likely development prospects of the country to 2040 along various measures such as poverty, healthcare and education, before presenting two alternative scenarios titled Abiynomics and Dark Days.

About the authors

Zachary Donnenfeld joined the Institute for Security Studies in 2015 as a researcher with the African Futures and Innovation programme in Pretoria. Zach has published work on development trends at the country, regional and continental level.

Dr Jakkie Cilliers is the founder of the Institute for Security Studies, chairman of the ISS Board of Trustees and head of African Futures and Innovation at ISS Pretoria. He is a well-known author and analyst.

Stellah Kwasi joined ISS in April 2018 as a researcher in the African Futures and Innovation programme in Pretoria. Before joining the ISS she was a research affiliate at the Fredrick S. Pardee Center of International Futures at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver.

Lily Welborn is a researcher at African Futures and Innovation programme at the Institute for Security Studies, Pretoria. Previously, she was a research consultant at the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver.

Picture: Jean Rebiffé/Flickr