The State of Governance, Peace and Security in the Horn of Africa

This report examines emerging trends, themes and threats and provides recommendations for governments in the region.

Since 2018, the Horn of Africa region has experienced major sociopolitical shifts that the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine only exacerbated. While inter-state conflict has continued to decrease, intrastate violence has experienced a peak with communal clashes manifesting themselves in various forms. As a consequence, the region has maintained its position as one of the world’s main regions producing refugees and internally displaced persons. Under the pressure of structural shifts in demographics, economics, technology and climate change, the region’s governments are adjusting while at the same time facing recurrent demands from a largely youthful population. Governance has experienced mixed fortunes. The volatile security situation has affected the civic and democratic space with many countries experiencing a decline in the respect of rule of law. In general, complex state building processes in the region manifest themselves in governments’ difficulty to consensually manage diversity (political views, gender and identity), thereby fuelling popular grievances and further instability.