Potential paths of human development in the Western Cape to 2040

This Policy Brief was commissioned by the Western Cape Government to propose policy interventions aimed at improving human development in the province.

The National Development Plan, the Provincial Strategic Plan and OneCape 2040 all emphasise that the key to reducing poverty lies in a virtuous cycle of growth and development. Every citizen should have the opportunity and ‘capability’ to be an active partner in his or her own development, and that of the country. As measured by the Human Development Index (HDI), human capacity has expanded in the Western Cape Province, especially since 2007. Prior to that, the HDI declined modestly due to the HIV/ AIDS epidemic. Using the International Futures (IFs) model we simulated Base Case development in the province to 2040. According to our forecasts, the Western Cape is on a trajectory between 2010 and 2040 to:

• Improve average life expectancy by 13 years, reaching the level of Mexico in 2010
• Increase per capita income by ZAR 130 000, to the level of New Zealand in 2010
• Increase expected years of education of school entrants by 3,5 years to an average of 14,3 years, similar to Taiwan in 2010
• Increase mean years of adult education by 3 years to 12,4 years, comparable to the USA in 2010
• Develop overall human capability to the level of Austria and the United Kingdom in 2010

This policy brief also extends beyond Base Case analysis by modelling aggressive but reasonable policy interventions. To do so, we develop an alternative scenario that gauges the potential for even further improvements in human development to 2040 for each of the three components of HDI.

Authors: Jonathan D. Moyer, Carey Neill and Mickey Rafa