Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: a scenario analysis to 2030

Africa’s development trajectory has suffered a severe setback, with extreme poverty rising in all the scenarios.

This report presents three scenarios on the impact of COVID-19 in Africa using economic growth forecasts, mortality and efforts to ameliorate impact through social grants. Likely effects are examined on per capita income, poverty and the attainment of selected Sustainable Development Goals targets. Africa’s development trajectory has suffered a severe setback, with extreme poverty rising in all the scenarios. The pandemic threatens Africa in several ways, and the report provides policy recommendations to reduce vulnerability and strengthen resilience.

About the authors

Jakkie Cilliers, Stellah Kwasi and Kouassi Yeboua are with the African Futures and Innovation Programme at the ISS in Pretoria.

Marius Oosthuizen is Programme Coordinator at the University of Pretoria’s Gordon Institute of Business Science.

Kelly Alexander is a PhD candidate and faculty member in the Department of Organization Studies at Tilburg University.

TK Pooe is Senior Lecturer and researcher at the North West University.

Jonathan D Moyer is Assistant Professor and Director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures.

Picture: Amelia Broodryk/ISS