PSC Interview: ‘Outsiders should refrain from meddling in Algeria’

The PSC Report spoke to ISS senior research consultant Matt Herbert about the protests in Algeria.

For the past several weeks, Algerians have taken to the streets to protest against the extension of ailing President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s mandate. These events will have a major impact on the North African oil producer and on the region. PSC Report spoke to Tunisia-based ISS senior research consultant and partner at Maharbal, Matt Herbert, about the implications of these protests in Algeria.

Why are these protests seen as unprecedented in Algeria’s recent history?

The past few years have seen routine, though localised, protests in various parts of the country around issues such as jobs, education or even housing, which is a huge issue in Algeria. Young people sometimes have to live with their parents into their thirties and even forties because of limited housing availability.

These protests, however, are far more widespread geographically. The movement is also very much grassroots and not led by any single political party, labour movement or civil society organisation. Finally, what makes this unprecedented is their duration. People are persistent and continue to take to the streets week after week.

Why have the concessions made by Bouteflika to postpone elections and withdraw his candidacy for a fifth term not been sufficient to end the protests?

The Algerian street certainly believes this is just a strategy of Bouteflika and those behind him to stay in power. After a brief euphoric night, they realised that postponing elections for one year, until the national dialogue is expected to wrap up its work, is very similar to a different offer he had proposed in a letter a few weeks earlier. Bouteflika’s ‘concessions’ don’t truly address the underlying grievances, and so there is really no reason to abandon the protests.

Bouteflika’s ‘concessions’ don’t truly address the underlying grievances, and so there is really no reason to abandon the protests

One has to remember that it is also not just about Bouteflika. It is about getting rid of a whole clan power structure around him that profits from its access to presidential power. The current leadership is old – much older than the majority of people in the streets. One of the reasons Bouteflika is still in power is that he represents, in a way, the last link to the legitimacy derived from the war of independence against the French. What legitimacy looks like after the independence-era generation passes from the scene is unclear, but it is a central question for the country.

What people want is a more equitable system where the needs and dreams of all Algerians are taken into account.

So far, there has been very little reaction from the international community. Why is that?

There have been some statements. France’s President Emmanuel Macron applauded Bouteflika’s decision not to run for a fifth term, while the US [United States] has indicated it is supportive of dialogue-based efforts to ‘chart a path forward’. But the international community has largely been silent in part because it really doesn’t know what is coming next. I don’t think anybody knows.

But this silence is actually good. Algeria is a country that is proud and insular, with a strong sense of self and sovereignty. Any perception of foreign meddling, even rhetorical meddling, is actually counterproductive for the protests, for the protestors and for any transition to a more equitable, democratic regime.

Any perception of foreign meddling, even rhetorical meddling, is actually counterproductive for the protests

You have said elsewhere that those who fear that these protests will spark increased migration from Algeria are misreading the situation. Why do you say so?

Such a reading assumes that there is not already a rise in migration, and yet there has been a very sharp increase in the last three years. This has been reported very widely in the Algerian press, especially throughout 2018. It’s also not just young men migrating, but entire families. This has caused huge societal consternation in Algeria. People are saying the status quo can’t go on. The protests won’t exacerbate the decision by Algerians feeling they need to leave; however, they can offer hope to those trying to sort out the decision that the status quo can change.

Secondly, fears that security gaps will lead to increased migration are not really accurate. The Algerian coast guard and gendarmerie’s arrests account for just 30% of Algerians apprehended trying to cross the Mediterranean illegally. Some of this is due to capacity constraints – it’s a long coast – although as I argued in an ISS article in February, there likely is a political element limiting apprehensions. Due to the fairly low apprehension rate, even a worst-case scenario in which Algerian security forces radically reduce their efforts to stem migration isn’t likely to have a huge impact.

The drivers of the protests and the drivers of migration are largely the same

Finally, the drivers of the protests and the drivers of migration are largely the same. Because this is the case throughout North Africa, regional governments have quietly tolerated irregular migration by their nationals to lessen unrest. The flip side of this is that political solutions to social frustrations in North Africa can have a significant impact on migration. So, what we need in Algeria is a political and economic situation that gives people hope and opportunities – addressing what has brought them into the streets and what drives them into the migrant boats.

There are fears, though, that this unstable situation could lead to a renewed rise in violence and terrorism. Do you think these fears are justified

There are certainly fears that there could be a relapse into violence, but I think this is unlikely. The residual terror groups [that were present in the 1990s] are small and under huge pressure, and their ability to act is quite limited, even less than in countries like Tunisia.

So it is unlikely that this particular dynamic we see now will increase opportunities for those terrorist groups to increase their activities.

But if there is an opening up of the political space, could Islamist parties win an election as they did in Egypt and then even provoke a backlash from the military?

This is a good question, because dynamics around Islamists in government have shifted dramatically in Algeria and North Africa since the early 1990s. In Tunisia the Ennahda party has been in a governing coalition with secular parties. While this initially created some anxiety among security forces in Algeria, the impact has to a degree allayed fears, as there hasn’t been a whole-scale revolution in societal affairs or political affairs.

Dynamics around Islamists in government have shifted dramatically in Algeria and North Africa since the early 1990s

There are a number of Islamist parties in Algeria that have operated there for some time and are tolerated by the government. So the role that they can potentially play as a popular opposition has decreased since the emergence of Islamic parties in the 1990s, when they really were a very new and untainted force in the Algerian body politic.

What do you think the eventual outcome will be of these protests?

I am hopeful about the present movement. Algerians have always been very forthright on political issues and do not hesitate to speak out about what they see as unjust and problematic. You see this now in the streets. This bodes well for a future democracy if this is the direction this ultimately goes in.

But I think just the act of the protests and the peaceful way in which it is going on is the most hopeful sign. The youth feel that they are now finally being heard, their voice was choked off for a long time, but this is a recognition of their needs and views by Algerian society. This is tremendously important.  

The youth feel that they are now finally being heard, their voice was choked off for a long time

I think this will continue to bear dividends in whichever way the country goes forward. At this stage we can’t say what exactly that could be and what precisely will happen in the next few weeks. Algeria constantly surprises us and the best thing international observers can do at this stage is just watch and not impose any preconceived ideas, whether it is the fear of increased migration or a resurgence of terrorism.

I do think this is certainly one of the most significant developments in North Africa since the coup by Abdel Fattah al-Sissi in Egypt five years ago.

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