PSC Interview: Five years to 2030, the guns still sound
With the African Union deadline looming to silence the guns, obstacles persist, says Dr Mohamed Ibn Chambas.
He shared his views with the PSC Report in his capacity as High Representative for Silencing the Guns and Chair of the AU High-Level Panel for the resolution of the conflict in Sudan.
With the deterioration in peace and security in Africa, how would you sum up the ‘Silencing the Guns’ agenda?
Given the challenges in implementing the AU roadmap to silence the guns – with dire consequences for peace and security – achieving the goal requires redoubled efforts. Despite early warning signals, the situation in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo has escalated and remains unresolved. In southern Africa, the Cabo Delgado insurgency in Mozambique continues to pose a significant threat to the region and the continent.
In East Africa, the conflict in Sudan persists with no immediate prospects for a negotiated settlement, as the factions remain committed to a military solution. Similarly, despite the AU mission and transition mission to Somalia and now the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia, al-Shabaab remains a threat after 17 years of counterinsurgency efforts.
In the Sahel, terrorist groups have intensified their attacks, necessitating enhanced cooperation for effective counterterrorism strategies. The withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger from the Economic Community of West African States to form the Alliance of Sahel States has created new impediments to regional security collaboration that must be managed.
We are also grappling with systemic governance weaknesses, the manipulation of political processes and unconstitutional changes of government that undermine democratic institutions. In some cases, parliamentary structures have failed to uphold their oversight responsibilities, allowing incumbents to manipulate constitutional provisions. At the same time, cooperation between the AU and Regional Economic Communities and Regional Mechanisms to address these challenges is also facing difficulties.
The AU Commission chairperson was excluded from the closed-door session of the East African Community and the Southern African Development Community on February 8 in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
This was a troubling reminder of the obstacles to inter-institutional coordination and the need for urgent corrective action. These difficulties are occurring against the diminishing commitment of African leaders to decisively address peace and security concerns, making the path forward even more precarious.
What practical steps do you propose to achieve the 2030 deadline?
We must adopt an inclusive, comprehensive and multidimensional conflict-resolution approach that appreciates the interconnectedness of peace, security, development, governance, human rights and humanitarian response. This requires particularly involving women and youth to ensure that peace resolutions are representative and sustainable. A prerequisite for durable peace is the inclusion, in any agreement, of everyone who matters.
Secondly, we must enhance and harmonise mediation and peacebuilding approaches to ensure that actors address the root causes of conflicts while maximising their comparative advantages. There is no denying that the neutrality and impartiality of mediators play a significant role in sustaining agreements.
Thirdly, we should prioritise conflict prevention and early warning. To my knowledge, all continental conflicts are preceded by warning signs. Simply put, prompt action is often lacking, despite clear early warnings. This must be addressed. Preventive diplomacy should also be improved to pre-empt conflict outbreaks and escalations.
Therefore, enhanced AU, REC/RM and member state coordination and collaboration are essential. Strengthening partnerships, coordination and mutual accountability among mediators will enhance peacemaking and peacebuilding, ultimately ensuring that peace agreements last.
Finally, we must emphasise the principle of subsidiarity, from national to regional, continental, and multilateral levels, as all actors have a stake in Africa's peace and security. These are critical pathways to silencing the guns in Africa.
How are mediation processes faring across the continent?
Let me start with the conflict in Sudan as an example. At present, there are multiple mediation initiatives working simultaneously to resolve the conflict. These include the Jeddah Process, the Neighbouring Countries’ Initiative, the Egypt Initiative, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, Nouakchott and Djibouti processes, and the Turkey Initiative.
Additionally, some European countries and their non-governmental organisations have launched initiatives to organise Sudanese civilian actors to pressure belligerents into ending the war and preparing for a post-war political transition.
While multiple initiatives demonstrate a strong commitment to conflict resolution, the lack of coordination creates the risk of working at cross purposes and enables warring parties to engage in forum shopping, pitting one mediator against another. This challenge is also present in other regions such as the Sahel and eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.
To be effective, we need an overarching coordination mechanism to harmonise efforts and strengthen outcomes. Looking at the security landscape across the continent, I would say mediation is yielding some results, even if several uncoordinated efforts appear to be at cross purposes.
What is the state of the Sudan conflict?
April 2025 will mark the second anniversary of the war in Sudan. Despite multiple efforts, the conflict persists as the warring parties – the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces – continue to ignore calls to cease hostilities.
They have also ignored the AU's warning that the war cannot be resolved through military means. Instead, they have intensified their pursuit of military victory, spreading the conflict across the country, displacing millions internally and forcing many to flee to neighbouring countries and beyond.
Meanwhile, millions risk starvation, schools remain closed – creating generational setbacks in education – and women, children and other vulnerable groups suffer widespread abuse. The elderly and sick lack medical care as hospitals shut down or struggle to operate with minimal resources.
The conflict in Sudan has now reached catastrophic proportions, making it one of the worst humanitarian disasters in the world. It is one of the greatest threats to the implementation of the AU Master Roadmap to Silencing the Guns in Africa.
What is needed to lessen the impact and influence of external peace spoilers in this civil war?
There is no military solution to the conflict. Those with real leverage over the belligerents, such as the United States, Saudi Arabia the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, have to work together to get the belligerents to end the fighting and resort to dialogue as the best means to resolve their differences.
The high-level panel has visited most of these countries to seek their support and to pressure the belligerents to cease actions that may fuel the conflict.
We hope the United States will re-engage to help curb external influences exacerbating the war. At our level, as the high-level panel, we continue to coordinate disparate initiatives aimed at ending the war, and through the AU Expanded Mechanism, we aim to bring together all conflict-resolution efforts for greater impact.
How could intra-Sudanese dialogues address civilian fragmentation?
While the destruction of Sudan is ongoing, civilian stakeholders remain divided now as they were in the lead-up to the conflict. While they tend to deny affiliation to the warring parties, it is clear which they have sympathies for. Bringing civilian groups together to design a post-war political framework for governance has been as challenging as getting the belligerents to the negotiating table.
In recent weeks, as the warring parties seek to establish rival governments, civilian political actors are fractured in their support of one side or the other.
The AU, with the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, has devised a political process to convene an all-inclusive inter-Sudanese political dialogue involving all segments of Sudanese political and civil society.
This dialogue aims to develop a framework for political governance during the transition and post-war period. We have had several preparatory meetings, but some civilian actors have requested additional time to resolve internal issues and adapt to evolving developments in the war. There is an urgent need for all stakeholders to expedite these efforts, given the worsening humanitarian situation.
