PSC elections: is the PSC at a crossroads?

The Peace and Security Council will elect 10 new members for a two-year term in February 2020.

Published on 13 December 2019 in PSC Insights

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PSC Report

The African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will elect 10 new members for a two-year term in February 2020. The stakes are high, given that this represents two-thirds of the membership of the 15-member body. This could reconfigure the PSC in a way that might have far-reaching implications for its decisions over the next two years.

2020 is also, in principle, the deadline for achieving one of the AU’s Agenda 2063 flagship programmes: Silencing the Guns. The PSC should ideally have played a critical role in the implementation of the Master Roadmap for Silencing the Guns in Africa, which was drawn up in 2016.

The PSC should ideally have played a critical role in the implementation of the Master Roadmap for Silencing the Guns in Africa

Knowing that the 2020 deadline will not be met and that the continent will probably have to review the roadmap, the next two years will be pivotal in breathing new life into the initiative. The PSC’s role in this regard will be crucial. 

In addition, given the current state of insecurity and the various, often-protracted threats and crises facing the continent, the PSC, as the main pillar of the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA), will be called upon to provide answers to these challenges.

PSC’s relevance at stake

The PSC is arguably at a crossroads because it has to show tangible impact on improving peace and security on the continent, particularly with regard to Silencing the Guns, or it risks becoming irrelevant.

The PSC’s handling of Sudan’s situation this year indicates that it does have the potential to be responsive

The PSC’s handling of Sudan’s situation this year indicates that it does have the potential to be responsive and act as the key actor in conflict prevention on the continent.

The PSC will have to demonstrate innovation and efficacy in contending with the deadly and expanding terrorist menace in the Sahelo-Saharan region and elsewhere on the continent, climate-induced conflicts, instability caused and/or exacerbated by governance deficits, and the protracted conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan, Libya and the Central African Republic, to name a few.

Continuing and outgoing PSC members in 2020

Five PSC members elected in 2019 for a three-year term will remain on the council, namely Nigeria, Kenya, Burundi, Lesotho and Algeria. Of these, Algeria, Nigeria, Lesotho and Kenya were inaugurating members of the PSC in 2004. Algeria and Nigeria have since served on the council for three two-year and two three-year terms and one two-year and four three-year terms, respectively.

The 10 outgoing members are Equatorial Guinea and Gabon for the Central African region; Liberia, Sierra Leone and Togo for West Africa; Djibouti and Rwanda for East Africa; Angola and Zimbabwe for Southern Africa; and Morocco for North Africa.

Of the outgoing members, only Morocco and Liberia were serving on the PSC for the first time. Morocco is a first-time member of the PSC because it only recently re-joined the AU after leaving the Organization of African Unity in 1984 over differences on Western Sahara. Liberia’s absence from the PSC could be attributed to its priorities being internal, particularly rebuilding the country from the ashes of war.

The recurring membership of some countries on the PSC indicates the importance that AU member states attach to the council

Overall, the recurring membership of some countries on the PSC seems to indicate the importance – strategic and otherwise – that many AU member states attach to the council. This is confirmed by how competitive the process to get on the PSC has become over recent years.

More competitive process to join the PSC

Discussions and negotiations over new PSC members typically begin in the months preceding the January/February AU summit, where new members are elected and confirmed. This process takes place in each of the five regions and varies from one region to another.

Historically, the selection would take place through a negotiated and consensual arrangement inside each region before candidates would officially submit their candidacy to the AU’s Legal Counsel Office for votes by the AU Executive Council and validation by the Assembly of Heads of States and Government at the ordinary summit. Often the nominations for the regions were uncontested.

The selection process within regions has become  more competitive and negotiations tougher

What appears to be the trend now is that the selection process within regions has become  more competitive and negotiations tougher. This is, for instance, evidenced by that fact that as of late November 2019 it still was not clear which countries were contesting for seats in each region.

Another complicating factor for ‘negotiated memberships’ is the fact that the five AU regions used for the PSC elections do not correspond to the more formal yet often overlapping eight regional economic communities and mechanisms recognised by the AU. The five regions have had to create their own forums and mechanisms to decide on PSC memberships.

A possible silver lining is that members that are elected by the Executive Council and not part of a negotiated arrangement within a region might be more independent and not beholden to the consensus of that region.  

Criteria for membership

One big challenge the PSC continues to grapple with has to do with taking into account the criteria for AU members to contest for a seat on the council, as set out in the PSC Protocol.

One big challenge the PSC continues to grapple with is taking into account the criteria for members to contest

These include contributing to the promotion and maintenance of peace and security in Africa; participating in conflict resolution, peacemaking and peacebuilding at regional and continental levels; showing the willing and ability to take up responsibility for regional and continental conflict resolution initiatives; contributing to the Peace Fund and/or Special Fund; respecting constitutional governance, the rule of law and human rights; and abiding by the AU’s financial obligations.

The principle underpinning these criteria is that a country will be less likely to perform as a PSC member if it is experiencing its own security and governance challenges and is not abiding by the shared values of the AU. These are outlined in instruments such as the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance.

Who sits on the PSC for the next two years will determine in which direction the continent will move

Ultimately, who sits on the PSC for the next two years will determine in which direction the continent will move in term of ‘silencing the guns’ beyond 2020 and creating a more peaceful and prosperous Africa, as envisioned by the AU.