How Africa is becoming a new theatre for adaptive drone warfare
Ukrainian technology and expertise could alter the balance between African state and non-state armed groups.
Ukraine has become the world’s unofficial laboratory for adapting commercial unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) to armed conflict. Like its adversary Russia, Ukraine is seeking cheaper alternatives to military-grade drones and draws on civilian knowhow to weaponise hobbyist drones. Its arsenal includes Chinese-made Mavic drones costing less than R80 000 (US$4 910).
State militaries and armed groups in Africa appear to be increasingly acquiring Ukrainian knowhow. Ukraine has long been among the top 10 weapons suppliers globally, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, and has participated in peacekeeping in Angola, Sierra Leone, Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
Growing African interest in drone tech
Ukraine is rapidly developing a drone manufacturing and modification industry to supply African clients, ranging from surveillance to longer-range armed drones. Ghana is interested in acquiring Ukraine’s adapted drones to monitor its borders with the Sahel. In an April Telegram post, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported progress on offering ‘drone deals’ to African countries. These cover the ‘production and supply of drones, missiles, shells and other types of equipment’, with a promise to issue export permits speedily.
At a June conference in South Africa on contemporary conflict reporting, Ukrainian journalist Sashko Chubko explained how Ukraine’s aerial war machine works. The military has adapted shop-bought drones for use alongside military-grade ones. Civilians add components that enable the drones to deliver lethal payloads. They focus on the bodywork ‘while the military adds the explosive’, Chubko said.
Ukraine is developing a drone-manufacturing and -modification industry to supply African customers
The race to adapt
Commercial drones used alongside Turkish military drones are becoming the mainstay of Ukraine’s military, prized for their low cost and availability. ‘In the early 2020s,’ said Chubko, ‘the Ukrainian military started mounting grenades and (do-it-yourself) explosives onto Mavic drones and learnt how to trigger the drop-off mechanism (for weapons) by switching on the drone’s flashlight.’ These were used on a mass scale around 2022 against Russian trenches, until Russia learnt to use jamming to keep them at bay.
By 2023, he added, Ukraine had introduced first-person view (FPV) drones. These stream real-time images to goggles worn by a pilot, can exceed 100km/h and nimbly navigate obstacles such as buildings. In 2024, Russia ‘overtook Ukraine (using) fibre-optic drones on a mass scale’. Though costly, these are the holy grail of drone technology, largely because they can evade countermeasures such as jamming and allow clearer air-to-ground communication.
Ukraine has since ramped up domestic production of such drones in what is proving to be a remote-warfare arms race with Russia. This has raised the threat level and transformed the battlefield. Large swathes of Ukraine are now draped in drone nets to trap the enemy’s fibre-optic drones and their potentially lethal munitions.
The continent’s armed groups were rapidly acquiring drones for surveillance, propaganda and kinetic purposes
Links to Africa
While such drone defences are less likely in many parts of Africa given the terrain, a 2024 United Nations (UN) report highlighted how the continent’s armed groups were rapidly acquiring drones for surveillance, propaganda and kinetic purposes.
Rueben Dass, associate research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies and research fellow at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research, told ISS Today that defence ties between Ukraine and African countries were deepening as technology became more powerful and affordable.
Dass has seen ‘an emulation of tactics and techniques involving first-person view and fibre-optic drones in settings including Mali’, where groups such as Islamic State are sharing knowhow with African affiliates. He stops short of saying formal ties are being forged between Ukraine’s drone engineers and African counterparts. But media reports indicate that Ukraine has conducted operations against Russian mercenaries supporting Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces and carried out drone strikes in and around Khartoum.
Unofficial reports suggest Ukrainian drone instructors are being deployed in the DRC and South Sudan. Erik Prince, founder of private military contractor Blackwater, is helping Kinshasa secure the country’s mineral wealth. His mercenaries have also reportedly clashed with the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels, using drones to help protect the DRC’s border areas with Burundi.
Prince bought a stake in Ukrainian drone startup Swarmer. His publicly stated interest in Ukraine’s burgeoning drone market has fuelled speculation that Ukrainian drone instructors will move deeper into the DRC and deploy more extensively.
Africa could become a new arena for Ukraine-Russia competition in adaptive drone warfare
Threats and opportunities
Drones have dramatically altered modern warfare. In Africa, their primary uses remain surveillance and reconnaissance – although their kinetic capabilities are growing. Simply having a drone has significant propaganda value, say scholars. It enables high-definition footage that can be shared on social media and allows non-state actors to project power beyond the areas they physically control.
Drones can also reduce the asymmetry between regular and irregular forces, as in Mali. Traditionally, African state militaries held the monopoly on the use of force. But the availability, affordability and adaptability of commercial drones have changed that.
Drone proliferation across Africa also raises concerns. Smuggling networks, including those run by insurgents, already trade weapons and electronic spare parts, and drone components could be next. Given Ukraine’s drone adaptation skills and its desire to deploy more aerial systems against Russia, Africa could become a new arena for Ukraine-Russia competition in adaptive drone warfare.
This article was first published by ISS Today.
