Is Africa becoming a new arena for adaptive drone warfare?
The spread of Ukrainian technology and expertise could alter the balance between state and non-state armed groups across Africa.
Ukraine has become the world’s unofficial laboratory for the adaptation and use of commercial unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones, in armed conflicts. Like its adversary, Russia, Ukraine is looking for cheaper alternatives to military-grade drones and draws on civilian knowledge to weaponise hobbyist drones. Chinese-made Mavic drones, for example, retailing at under R80 000 (US$4 910), are part of Ukraine’s arsenal.
State militaries and armed groups in Africa appear to be increasingly acquiring Ukrainian know-how. Ukraine has long been among the top 10 weapons suppliers globally, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute and has been involved in peacekeeping in Angola, Sierra Leone, Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
Now Ukraine is fast developing a drone manufacturing and modification industry to supply African clients, ranging from surveillance to longer-range armed drones.
Ghana has expressed an interest in acquiring Ukraine’s adapted drones for surveillance along its Sahel borders. In an April Telegram post, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy indicated progress on offering ‘drone deals’ to African countries. This related to ‘production and supply of drones, missiles, shells and other types of equipment,’ with the promise to issue export permits speedily.
Ukraine is fast developing a drone manufacturing and modification industry to supply African clients
In South Africa for a June conference on contemporary conflict reporting, Ukrainian journalist Sashko Chubko shed light on how Ukraine’s aerial war machine functions. The military has adapted shop-bought drones for use alongside military-grade drones. Civilians add components and enable drones to deliver lethal payloads. They focus on the bodywork ‘while the military adds the explosive,’ Chubko explains.
Commercial drones used in tandem with Turkish military drones are becoming the mainstay of the Ukrainian military. But it’s the commercial drones that have sparked considerable interest because of their low cost and availability.
‘In the early 2020s, the Ukrainian military started mounting grenades and [do-it-yourself] explosives onto Chinese Mavic drones and learnt how to trigger the drop-off mechanism [for weapons] by switching on the drone’s flashlight,’ says Chubko. ‘These were adapted and used on a mass scale around 2022, targeting Russian trenches until Russia learned how to use jamming techniques to stop them coming close.’
By 2023, he adds, Ukraine introduced first-person view drones. These stream real-time pictures to special goggles worn by a pilot and can reach speeds over 100km/h. They can also navigate obstacles in the sky, such as buildings, with agility.
In 2024, Russia ‘overtook Ukraine [using] fibre optic drones on a mass scale.’ These are the holy grail of drone technology (although they are costly), largely because they can evade counter measures such as jamming and allow for clearer air-to-ground communication. Ukraine has ramped up domestic production of such drones in what is proving to be an arms race in remotely powered Russia-Ukraine warfare.
This has upped the threat level and transformed the landscape. Large swathes of Ukraine’s skies are now draped in drone nets, designed to trap the enemy’s fibre optic drones and their potentially lethal munitions.
As the pace of technology adaptation ramps up, so do potential partnerships with armed groups in Africa
While these types of drone defences are less likely to be seen in many parts of Africa given its terrain, a 2024 United Nations (UN) report highlighted how the continent’s armed groups were rapidly acquiring drones for surveillance, propaganda and kinetic purposes. As the pace of technological adaptation ramps up in the Russia-Ukraine war, so do potential partnerships with armed groups in Africa.
Rueben Dass, Associate Research Fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies and a UN Institute for Disarmament Research Fellow, told ISS Today that defence ties were deepening between Ukraine and African countries as technology became more powerful and affordable.
Dass has seen ‘an emulation of tactics and techniques involving first-person view and fibre optic drones, in settings including Mali,’ where groups like Islamic State are sharing know-how with African affiliates.
He stops short of saying formal ties are being forged between Ukraine’s drone engineers and African partners. But media reports indicate that Ukraine has conducted operations against Russian mercenaries supporting Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces, and has used drone strikes in Khartoum and surrounds.
Unofficial reports suggest Ukrainian drone instructors are being deployed in the DRC and South Sudan. Erik Prince, founder of private military contractor Blackwater, is helping Kinshasa secure the country’s mineral wealth. But its private mercenaries have also reportedly been engaged in confrontations with the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels, using drones to help protect the DRC’s border areas with Burundi.
Smuggling networks in Africa, including insurgents, are already trading weapons and electronics spare parts
Prince bought a stake in Ukrainian drone startup Swarmer, and his publicly stated interest in that country’s burgeoning drone market has led to speculation that Ukrainian drone instructors will move deeper into DRC and deploy more extensively.
Drones have dramatically altered the nature of modern warfare. In Africa, their primary use remains surveillance and reconnaissance – although their kinetic capabilities are increasing. Just having a drone has significant propaganda value, say scholars. It enables high-definition video footage that can be shared on social media and allows non-state actors to project power beyond their physical areas of control.
Drones can also reduce the asymmetry between regular and irregular forces, as seen in Mali. Traditionally, African state militaries had the monopoly on the use of force. But the availability, affordability and adaptability of low-cost commercial drones have changed that.
There is also concern about the fallout from drone proliferation across Africa. Smuggling networks, including insurgents, are already trading weapons and electronics spare parts. Are drone components next?
Coupled with Ukrainian drone adaptation skills and the country’s desire to deploy more aerial systems against Russia, this means Africa could become a source of intense competition over adaptive drone warfare.
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