Has the AU summit helped to silence the guns?
While the 33rd AU summit did make some decisions that would help the AU to ‘silence the guns’ in Africa, many issues remain outstanding.
At the recent 33rd African Union (AU) summit, a number of decisions were taken that could have an impact on the continent’s aim of ‘silencing the guns’ – the organisation’s theme of 2020. However, some of them remain vague and have been referred to future summits for clarification.
The long-awaited revised protocol between the AU and regional economic communities (RECs) was adopted at the summit, but key elements have not been included in the final draft, which spans a mere 21 pages.
The issues of subsidiarity and a clear division of labour between the AU and RECs –contentious matters that often impact on how crises are handled on the continent – are not clearly addressed in the revised protocol. The expectation is that these issues will be thrashed out during the mid-year coordination summit in Chad on 4 July 2020.
It is unclear whether there will be any definitive decision on the division of labour
Yet even then, it is unclear whether there will be any definitive decision on the division of labour, despite the fact that improving the AU–RECs relationship figures strongly in the AU’s 2016 Master Roadmap for Silencing the Guns.
For now the text re-affirms the positions in the protocol relating to the establishment of the Peace and Security Council (PSC), which calls upon the AU and RECs to ‘harmonise and coordinate’ their efforts in establishing peace and security on the continent.
The AU and RECs prefer to deal with the division of labour in an ad hoc manner, as witnessed during the discord over election results in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in early 2019.
The new chair of the AU, South Africa, has been clear that it considers RECs primarily responsible for peace and security in its region and that the AU only has a secondary role in this regard. This has always been the position of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), of which South Africa is a member.
The new chair of the AU, South Africa, has been clear that it considers RECs primarily responsible for peace and security in its region
A new Coordination Committee
New structures to govern the relationship between the AU and RECs/regional mechanisms are meanwhile being created that could be used to coordinate peace and security efforts.
According to the revised protocol, a new Committee on Coordination, supported by a secretariat, will consist of the AU Commission chairperson, the chief executive officers (CEOs) of the various RECs and the CEO of the NEPAD-African Union Development Agency, which has an oversight role.
Whether the focus of this new committee will be regional economic integration, as set out in the Abuja Treaty, or whether issues such as the division of labour in mediation, conflict prevention and peacekeeping will also be discussed, remains to be seen.
Ideally, this could be a forum where the comparative advantage of the AU or RECs when it comes to dealing with specific countries in crisis is discussed and decisions taken.
Election of new PSC members
Another decision that could have an impact on the continent’s ability to make peace and ensure stability is the election of 10 new PSC members. These are Cameroon and Chad for Central Africa; Djibouti and Ethiopia for East Africa; Egypt for North Africa; Malawi and Mozambique for Southern Africa; and Benin, Ghana and Senegal for West Africa. Each of them will serve on the PSC for a two-year term, starting in April 2020.
They will join the five member states that are already serving on the PSC for a three-year term, namely Algeria, Kenya, Lesotho, Nigeria and Burundi.
The new PSC will clearly have a number of heavyweight members with strong diplomatic traditions, such as Ethiopia, Egypt, Algeria and Nigeria
The new PSC will clearly have a number of heavyweight members with strong diplomatic traditions, such as Ethiopia, Egypt, Algeria and Nigeria, as well as members faced with political instability, such as Cameroon, Burundi and Lesotho. Mozambique is also increasingly on the agenda of continental bodies owing to the growing terrorist insurgency in the north of the country. In addition, there are concerns about the stability of Ethiopia in the run-up to elections in August this year.
Can the APRM make a difference?
At the 33rd summit South African President Cyril Ramaphosa also took over the role of chairperson of the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) for the next two years. Zimbabwe and the Seychelles became new APRM members at the summit, bringing the total number of members to 40.
The summit, in its decisions, instructed the APRM Secretariat to work on its second ‘State of Governance’ report to be presented to heads of state at its next summit in February 2021.
However, there are some doubts about the APRM’s new expanded role, which includes early warning and conflict prevention. There are concerns that it overlaps with various other initiatives, such as the early warning division in the AU Commission’s Peace and Security Department.
There are some doubts about the APRM’s new expanded role, which includes early warning and conflict prevention
The APRM does have a strong network on the ground and has built up a considerable body of knowledge thanks to the 22 country reports that have been completed. The secretariat and CEO Eddy Maloka will therefore have an opportunity to show that the APRM fills a gap in the continent’s early warning architecture.
Targeted reports that are drawn up at short notice and that focus on specific crisis issues will have to be published in order for the APRM to show its comparative advantage in this regard, particularly as many other assessment frameworks are mushrooming at both the continental and regional levels.
A year of restructuring the AU Commission
The restructuring of the AU Commission, notably the merger of the Peace and Security Department and the Department of Political Affairs, could also give new impetus to the continent’s efforts towards silencing the guns.
The overlapping competencies of the departments that deal with security and governance issues respectively were noted in the AU reform process as one of the obstacles to a more coherent AU response to crises.
The period of restructuring, however, is likely to take up much of the time and energy of AU officials during 2020. Notably, the Department of Political Affairs has been tasked by ministers of the Executive Council to deal with the excessive number of short-term positions sponsored by outside partners and not the AU budget. The restructuring means that the department needs to transform short-term jobs into more permanent positions.
In its decision on the restructuring at the summit, the Assembly called on the commission and member states to ‘finalise the transition plan and financing strategy’ by June 2020 for consideration by the 37th Ordinary Session of the Executive Council to be held ahead of the second Mid-Year Coordination Meeting in Chad.
The commission will also be focused on the election of its new chairperson, deputy chairperson and six new commissioners at the next summit in early 2021. Consultants will carry out a selection process based on merit in the coming months in line with the reform proposals led by Rwandan President Paul Kagame.
Can the DRC silence the guns?
At the summit, the new headquarters of the Committee of Intelligence and Security Service of Africa was inaugurated – a key tool identified in the Master Roadmap to help countries in the fight against terrorism.
It was also announced that the Peace Fund now has over US$160 million in its coffers, another essential tool for Africa to find solutions to its own peace and security problems. However, the fund has still not been operationalised.
The continent decided to nominate DRC President Felix Tshisekedi as AU president for 2021 based on regional rotation
Finally, the continent decided to nominate DRC President Felix Tshisekedi as AU president for 2021 based on regional rotation. Some questioned the decision to award the chair to a country with such huge peace and security problems. The DRC’s eastern regions have been mired in conflict for several decades and for people living in these areas, the guns have certainly not fallen silent.
If the DRC is to be a worthy chair it will have to show during 2020 that concrete steps are taken to reduce attacks by armed groups and that it is able to protect its citizens from violence and insecurity. This is far from certain.
Thus, while the summit did make some decisions that will help the AU to be fit for purpose when it comes to silencing the guns, many issues remain outstanding.
