Are Agenda 2063 goals within Africa’s reach?
A lack of political will and poor governance hinder progress but frontrunners are showing the way.
The slogan ‘The Africa we want’ encapsulates Agenda 2063 – a shared ambitious vision for inclusive growth and sustainable development for Africa. The vision is to be realised through Africa becoming a fully developed and well-functioning continent in tune with other regions of the world. It seeks to build on and accelerate past implementation and existing continental initiatives for growth and sustainability. Agenda 2063 contains seven aspirations, 20 goals and numerous priorities.
The first 10-year implementation plan started in 2014 and lapses later this year. However, compared to global visions such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), tracking the agenda’s progress has not received much attention. It does not have, for example, the civil society organisation platform that monitors and reports on SDGs implementation and holds its governments accountable for defaults or tardiness.
The African Union (AU) Development Agency-New Partnership for Africa's Development has produced two progress reports on the first 10-year plan, but they didn’t cover all 54 African countries. The second report considers only 38 countries. This article analyses Agenda 2063 progress using data and forecasts from the International Futures model. There may be slight differences in data due to the number of countries, data source and measurement used.
Aspiration 1 of Agenda 2063 is to build a prosperous continent based on inclusive growth and sustainable development. By 2023, real per capita income should be a third higher than in 2013. Africa’s real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita was about US$5 084 in 2013. To realise this goal, that would have to rise to US$6 779 this year.
Agenda 2063 lacks an SDG-type platform to monitor implementation and hold governments accountable
Current path forecasts show that by end-2023, Africa will fall short of this goal by 91%, having made a negligible gain of only 3% from the 2013 base rate (Chart 1). This indicates that the continent will achieve this target only by 2042. Despite this, some countries have performed well, notably Ethiopia, which improved its GDP per capita in 2020 by almost 49% more than in 2013. Côte d’Ivoire and Guinea achieved 39.4% and 31.2% respectively in 2020 compared to 2013.
Chart 1: GDP per capita from 2013 to 2063 
Chart 2: Proportion of people living below the poverty line from 2013 to 2063 on the current path  (click on the charts for the full size images)
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Most AU member states are still battling widespread poverty. The World Bank poverty line benchmark is US$1.90 per person per day (in 2011 international prices). The proportion of Africans living below this mark dropped marginally – from 36.7% in 2013 to 35.1% in 2021. It is projected to reach 34.1% by end-2023.
At the current growth trajectory, Africa will miss the Agenda 2063 target of 23% in 2023 by 14 years (Chart 2), with 31 countries falling short. The citizens of 11 countries will be below the line. However, Algeria, Tunisia, Mauritius, Morocco, Seychelles and Egypt have already eliminated extreme poverty.
The Gini coefficient is the standard measure of inequality. The first 10-year plan is projected to reduce inequality from 0.4 in 2013 to 0.34 by 2021 and 0.32 by 2023 (Chart 3). However, in 2021, Africa’s Gini coefficient was 19% lower than the expected target of 0.34 and is forecast to reach 0.38 in 2023. This slow rate of inequality reduction will prevent Africa from reaching 0.32 – even by 2063.
Despite this, countries such as Seychelles have reduced inequality more rapidly, moving from 0.468 in 2013 to 0.316 in 2021. The Southern Africa region remains particularly concerning with extremely high inequality. At the current rate, only Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia and Mali will achieve 0.23 for 2023.
Most African countries won’t meet the goals set for 2023, with many only materialising well beyond 2063
The continent needs to accelerate universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation. The proportion of Africans using piped water increased from 41.6% in 2013 to only 43.6% in 2021 and is forecast to reach 44.1% by 2023, far below the 98% goal (Chart 4).
Chart 3: Gini coefficient from 2013 to 2063 
Chart 4: Access to electricity, piped water and improved sanitation from 2013 to 2063  (click on the charts for the full size images)
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On the current path, this target will be achieved only after 2063, affecting health outcomes and development prospects. However, Mauritius and Egypt already surpassed this target by end-2020, while Seychelles, São Tomé and Principe, Tunisia, Botswana, Cabo Verde and South Africa aren’t far behind.
The proportion of Africans enjoying improved sanitation rose from 38.7% in 2013 to only 42.8% in 2021, well below the expected 84% for the period. At this rate, the 2023 target of 97% will be reached only years after 2063. Nevertheless, countries such as Seychelles and Egypt have succeeded, while Mauritius, Tunisia and Libya are close.
The proportion of Africans with electricity increased from 47.6% in 2013 to only 54% in 2021 and is forecast to reach 55.1% in 2023, significantly below the intended 78%. On this path, the 2013 target is likely to be achieved only by 2048. The 2063 goal will, thus, be missed by many years.
However, Morocco, Seychelles, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Mauritius, Libya, Gabon and Cabo Verde already achieved the milestone in 2021. South Africa, Ghana and Comoros are making progress. A huge disparity in electricity access exists between urban and rural dwellers. The former hit almost the 80% electricity mark in 2021 from 74.7% in 2013, while the rural increase was 37% in 2021, from 33.3% in 2013.
Stepping up the pace
Although the AU and its member states have progressed in meeting the key goals mentioned in this article, the pace has been slow and limited to a couple of progressive countries. Most African countries will not meet the requirements set for 2023, with many set to materialise well beyond 2063. This failure to meet milestones should concern the AU and its states and development partners.
Poor progress can be attributed first to the lack of political will and poor governance on the continent. The ineffectiveness of governments to drive their development agendas continues to hamper the attainment of Agenda 2063. The COVID-19 pandemic and worsening climate woes have also negatively affected economies. In 2020 alone, African GDP shrunk by 2.1%, with about US$101 billion lost in export revenue from fuel alone.
Natural disasters and endemic diseases are also eroding development gains. For instance, the recent late-onset rainfall, lack of fertiliser and current flooding in southern Malawi have caused widespread devastation and displacement. Coupled with the cholera outbreak, these crises are continuously diverting funding to emergency responses.
These occurrences have hampered member countries’ ability to commit finance to the agenda. Also, African states spend between 2% and 9% of their budgets responding to extreme weather events, money that could be invested into education, health or infrastructure. Beyond these is the lack of prioritisation, interest and enthusiasm for the agenda among member countries, with most lacking SDG-type structures to integrate visions into their national plans.
In the medium term, an agricultural revolution would have the greatest impact on GDP per capita and poverty reduction
Turning this around will require multisectoral targeted interventions by African governments, with improved revenue from the AU and donors. A study by African Futures and Innovation shows the value of targeted intersectoral agriculture, education, demographics and health, governance, free trade, manufacturing and infrastructure policies. These initiatives, with more external financial flows, can significantly increase economic growth and reduce poverty. Nonetheless, the impact of the individual scenarios varies.
In the medium term (2024 to 2033), an agricultural revolution would have the greatest impact on GDP per capita and poverty reduction. By 2033, the agriculture scenario could raise GDP by 15% over its value in 2019. Similarly, it could reduce the extreme poverty rate by almost 11 percentage points in 2033.
However, in the long term (2024 to 2043), full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement is the fastest route to economic growth and poverty reduction. It has the potential to boost GDP per capita to nearly 50% more than its 2019 value and reduce the number of citizens below the poverty threshold from 34.8% to 17.3% by 2043.
Combined interventions in these areas could attain the GDP goal as early as 2033 and provide the multiplier effect to advance achievements on the current path. A vibrant AU needs to zero in on full implementation of the free-trade area and prioritise agricultural production to pluck the low-hanging fruit for the Africa we want.
