Amid great uncertainty, Africa needs to prepare – Dr Mayaki
Africa CDC's work on other epidemics allowed the AU to quickly develop a continental response to COVID-19.
The COVID-19 pandemic is having a serious impact on African economies and societies, even though the actual numbers of those infected with the virus are still relatively low. The PSC Report asked Dr Ibrahim Mayaki, CEO of the African Development Agency (AUDA)-Nepad, what is being done to assist African countries during the crisis.
What will be the economic impact of the coronavirus on Africa?
We don’t know yet. Nobody knows yet, even in France, Germany, the United States (US) … no-one really knows. We saw figures that came out of the US to support the economy two months ago that seemed totally unrealistic. And suddenly today they are seen as realistic because the economic impact is so huge.
So for Africa, even though we don’t know what the economic impact will be, we need to prepare. And in order to prepare we need to increase our fiscal space so that we can take adequate measures.
Firstly, it is essential to tackle the health dimension of the crisis. It is not only about ICU [intensive care unit] beds, but you also need equipment, supplies, etc. Clearly there will be huge costs. We also need non-COVID hospitals and facilities. This is necessary because since the structural adjustment programmes [imposed in the 1980s by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, or IMF] we haven’t given the health sector the necessary priority.
This is also a reminder that development is not only about financial capitalisation but also about social sectors.
Since the structural adjustment programmes we haven’t given the health sector the necessary priority.
How will the informal sector be affected?
The second thing is we must also start thinking how many jobs we will lose. We do know that 60% and more of our economies are in the informal sector and these are workers who have a daily salary. The informal sector has been cushioning poverty in many of our countries. So if we lock down the informal sector the poverty situation will become very critical. So we really need the fiscal space to respond.
Small and medium enterprises that are the main providers of jobs in our economies also need to be supported. All these measures need to be financed in the very short term and that’s why we requested debt relief from the World Bank and IMF.
What can be done about food security?
Global value chains have been disrupted. The price of 1 kg of cargo has been multiplied by three or four, which is serious if we know that we are importing up to US$50 billion worth of food every year, according to the FAO [Food and Agriculture Organization]. It reminds us that we need to think in terms of our own regional value chains because the global value chains are being disrupted and many countries will try to protect themselves.
We need to think in terms of our own regional value chains because the global value chains are being disrupted
There is clearly a huge disconnect in the world when it comes to trade. If you look at the competition around PPEs [personal protective equipment] where you have Americans buying on Chinese tarmacs products that are supposed to go to France … If you ask Italy and Spain they will tell you that the EU [European Union] has not been very good at coordinating a common response, they are competing with each other. And even within countries they are competing with each other over who is going to get more masks or products. So this global context teaches us once again the imperative to really think regionally.
National solutions will not be enough. We really need to think about the acceleration of the implementation of the AfCFTA [African Continental Free Trade Area] and invest in our own regional value chains.
There has been some criticism that African governments are simply importing responses that won’t work for Africa?
But everyone is using imported solutions from China and elsewhere. If you switch on your television you see experts and epidemiologists from the EU and the US quoting papers from China.
They will keep on doing this, because nobody really knows how to deal with this virus. If it were Ebola we would have known what the procedures are, from Sierra Leone to Guinea to the DRC [Democratic Republic of Congo] to Côte d’Ivoire, but now we are facing an unknown enemy. So many countries will improvise because if they don’t take decisions they will be criticised for being inefficient and irresponsible.
Many countries will improvise because if they don’t take decisions they will be criticised for being inefficient and irresponsible
So it’s true that some measures might not be adapted, but it must be seen within the context of high uncertainty where everybody is importing solutions from everybody else.
It is clear that some of the measures like social distancing are difficult to implement in Africa, but at the same time it is people who are spreading the virus, so social distancing is absolutely a necessity. In the 16th century during the plague in Milan social distancing was practiced … even at that time, people instinctively knew to practice social distancing.
What can Africa do differently?
The fundamental point is how can governments really empower communities. If we empower communities we find ways of explaining the need for things like social distancing. The voices of community leaders are better and more credible than those of governments and state institutions. That is another way to view development.
What is the African Union (AU) doing to help African countries in their response to COVID-19?
The AU and the Africa CDC [Africa Centres for Disease Control] have been working relentlessly on epidemics since the Ebola outbreak, so they weren’t surprised by COVID-19. This allowed the AU to very quickly get an African response drafted by the commission and then other organs responded as well.
The AU and the Africa CDC have been working relentlessly on epidemics since the Ebola outbreak
President Cyril Ramaphosa [AU chair] has been in close contact with Moussa Faki Mahamat, the AU Commission chairperson, and has held several meetings with leaders to discuss the outbreak and responses. He has also led the efforts to obtain debt relief from the IMF, World Bank and the G20. We hope this will work. It is also well known that South Africa is being praised for the way it has handled the outbreak. South Africa and India are used by the WHO [World Health Organization] as examples of good practices. You didn’t wait to have hundreds of cases to have a lockdown. This will work better than in countries that started late.
RECs [regional economic communities] will also be brought on board. It’s clear that nobody is sleeping now. People are working 18, 20 hours a day.
What can be the role of the AUDA-Nepad?
The AUDA-Nepad has aligned its strategies to those of the Africa CDC. We reviewed all our workplans and linked what we are doing on the ground to a strategic response framed by the AU Commission and the Africa CDC.
We also assisted with the strategic response from the AU. This has a health dimension, but it also has an educational dimension, such as e-learning for example, creating industrial capacity around food systems, employment, etc. We have also developed a White Paper on COVID-19 that sets out areas where the AUDA-Nepad can assist.
We are in constant interaction with the commission, which is coordinating efforts. These efforts are not well known, but the AU has been extremely active.
