Africa's free trade initiative could bolster continental peace

The AfCFTA is set to create greater economic opportunities in Africa, which could in turn prevent conflicts from escalating.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the world's largest trading block by virtue of the number of states signed onto it, is set to start trading in July 2020. The AfCFTA took three years to negotiate – considered a very short period for such a complex undertaking. The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) says this speedy conclusion demonstrates the ‘appetite and commitment’ of all parties.

However, despite the remarkable progress made so far and the potential of the AfCFTA to contribute to economic development and peace, its implementation is bound to be hampered by the prevailing insecurity on the continent. If the situation continues to worsen and spreads, as is currently seen in the Sahel and the Lake Chad Basin, the full potential of the AfCFTA will not be achieved.

Pull quote: Despite the potential of the AfCFTA, its implementation is bound to be hampered by the prevailing insecurity on the continent

An arc of instability

Africa has made progress in the quest for peace and security by strengthening continental response frameworks and institutions. Significant strides have also been made in difficult cases such as Somalia and Sudan.

However, recent developments in Libya, South Sudan, the Central African Republic, the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo and the Lake Chad Basin, as well as the violent extremism trends in the Sahel, point to structural challenges in addressing the continent's insecurity situation.

Despite the overall progress, therefore, Africa’s current security outlook is marked by the blurring of lines between conflicts and violent extremism, as well as the spread of the resulting insecurity from the Sahel towards the coastal areas.

It is also characterised by the protraction of existing conflicts and, most importantly, the emergence of areas along the equator as a soft underbelly of insecurity where the multiple drivers of state fragility on the continent are compounded. This belt constitutes an arc of instability that threatens to widen both northwards and southwards, if not addressed.

Africa's peace and security outlook, in this context, thus remains deeply concerning despite enormous progress over time.

Africa's peace and security outlook remains deeply concerning despite enormous progress over time

Socio-economic challenges, marginalisation and governance deficits are evident drivers of insecurity on the continent, particularly in the peripheral areas of African states. The lack of economic opportunities has made it easier for extremist groups to recruit young people. Poverty and unemployment have become both the drivers and the consequences of insecurity in Africa.

This implies that significant progress can be made in the area of peace and security if the current socio-economic situation in many parts of the continent can be overturned. This is a key area where the AfCFTA interfaces with Africa’s security challenges.

The promise of the AfCFTA

According to UNECA, the AfCFTA will boost intra-African trade by up to about US$35 billion and lead to a drop of about US$10 billion in imports by 2022. This is expected to turn the continent into a US$3 trillion economic bloc of 1.2 billion people.

As noted by the president of the African Development Bank, Akinwumi Adesina, this level of economic activity promises to unlock enormous benefits and wealth for Africa's 55 states. Such an outcome will inevitably have an enormous impact on continental peace and security realities in several major ways.

Greater economic opportunities promise to impact insecurity significantly by helping to prevent the onset of violence

First, greater economic opportunities promise to impact insecurity significantly by helping to prevent the onset of violence in stable countries and offering pathways for countries currently insecure to exit conflicts. Apart from emptying the streets of many idle hands, it will resource African states and enhance their abilities to manage the governance deficit issues currently bedevilling them.

A prosperous Africa is the biggest panacea to the continent's migration crisis and the only means to enhance continental capacity for robust action against insecurity. The AfCFTA is thus not just a giant step to create wealth but also a major step towards eradicating Africa's insecurity challenges.

In addition, the AfCFTA is a crucial move forwards in safeguarding the future of African states. It is evident from the recent trends of popular mass uprisings in Africa that citizens are increasingly opposed to states that cannot provide basic services such as healthcare, education and security. The African state’s lack of relevance in the daily lives of citizens is thus in and of itself a major threat to stability and the consolidation of democracy.

Providing services to citizens involves good leadership and sustainable economic growth, which the AfCFTA promises. The AfCFTA in this context is thus immediately relevant to state stability.

Against this backdrop, although the AfCFTA may not have been conceptualised as a peace and security response initiative, when fully implemented it will constitute the continent's most ambitious long-term response framework to the structural socio-economic drivers of insecurity.

Threat of insecurity to the free trade area

Yet insecurity is also the biggest obstacle to the realisation of the goals of the AfCFTA. First, the current instability means that the implementation of the initiative will be uneven.

Countries with precarious security situations will not see as much of a boost in economic activities as those that are stable. Although the resulting differences in adoption and implementation are catered for under the ‘variable geometry’ principle of the agreement, an uneven adoption of the trade area threatens to reduce its overall size and the volume of economic activity.

An uneven adoption of the trade area threatens to reduce its overall size and the volume of economic activity

Particularly disturbing is that insecurity holds the biggest potential to impede the implementation of the initiative by restricting the intra-regional mobility of persons, capital, goods and services. It could also enable organised economic criminals to smuggle cheap goods into the trade area, thereby further weakening the achievement of the intra-African trade agenda.

The closure of Nigeria’s land borders to trade – reportedly as a result of smuggling activities – shows that such a situation will affect states’ involvement in the free trade area. Ultimately, insecurity in Africa has a major impact on overall progress to other milestones in the continental economic integration agenda.

Need for political will

Unfortunately, Africa's security outlook is not likely to change significantly by July 2020. The current insecurity realities are therefore the context within which stakeholders in the AfCFTA must implement the initiative. There are many risks ahead.

The excitement that has come with the AfCFTA should thus inform realistic calls and continental action for pragmatic progress on the peace and security front, as a prerequisite for realising the goals of the free trade area.

This is important because the relationship between the implementation of the free trade area and insecurity is inverse. More insecurity jeopardises the implementation of the AfCFTA, while a successful trade area will improve peace and security. The AfCFTA is, therefore, not just a wealth creation initiative but also arguably Africa's most significant move towards meeting the peace and security aspirations of Agenda 2063.

It is important that AU member states consider the initiative as part of their structural response to insecurity on the continent and show the needed political will to make it happen.

Related content