Uganda’s military takes centre stage in Museveni succession

The increased influence of Museveni’s son in government and his position as military chief threaten Uganda’s democracy.

Published on 16 September 2026 in ISS Today

By

Willis Okumu
Senior Researcher, East Africa Peace and Security Governance Programme, ISS Nairobi

Uganda’s January elections, which handed President Yoweri Museveni, 81, a seventh term, have heightened political debate over his succession. Government and opposition actors have positioned themselves as potential successors, with Museveni’s son, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, military chief of the Uganda Peoples’ Defence Forces (UPDF), the apparent front-runner.

Since Uganda’s independence in 1962, power has never changed hands through voting. From 1962 to 1980, no elections were held. From 1979, a military commission that ruled the country organised polls for December 1980. These were disputed, leading to political contestation through guerrilla warfare until Museveni marched into Kampala in 1986 to claim the presidency.

Uganda was governed by a single-party system under Museveni from 1986 to 1996. Since the introduction of multiparty elections in 1996, Museveni and the National Resistance Movement (NRM) have won every poll.

The military is deeply entrenched in Uganda’s politics and is central to its governance structure. Arbitrary arrests of government critics and military trials of political detainees and civilians have been a feature of Museveni’s 40-year rule. Opposition figures, journalists and media houses have been targeted. Since mid-June, at least five critics of Museveni and Muhoozi have been detained according to Human Rights Watch.

The military is deeply entrenched in Uganda’s politics and is central to its governance structure

Uganda’s constitution designates the military as a special interest group and allocates 10 parliamentary seats to its representatives, who are elected by the military council. The mixing of civilian and military authority in governing the country has been a key factor in Museveni’s long stay in power.

Critics say Museveni’s rule is supported by the Special Forces Command (SFC), a military unit formerly run by Muhoozi. Government critics have accused the unit of abduction and extrajudicial killings, allegations the SFC denies.

Muhoozi’s growing prominence in Uganda’s succession politics is contrary to Ugandan law, which prohibits serving military personnel from engaging in politics. Despite this, he has positioned himself for succession, stating on X that he wants to succeed his father as president.

His prospects have been boosted by the recent formation of the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU), a political pressure group comprising Muhoozi-aligned NRM members. Muhoozi’s declaration that PLU-aligned ministers are present in the recently appointed cabinet demonstrates his executive decision-making power. It places him in a central position to claim leadership of Uganda post-Museveni.

His control of the military is also critical in the succession matrix. As UPDF head, Muhoozi previously said the army would accept only a Commander-in-Chief (national president) from the military or police – a statement that threatens Uganda’s nascent democracy.

The potential for a dynastic power transfer is not limited to Muhoozi. Museveni’s son-in-law Odrek Rwabwogo, a senior presidential adviser, is viewed as Muhoozi’s rival.

Uganda’s military is designated as a special interest group and has 10 parliamentary seats

Rwabwogo has described his brother-in-law as a ‘drunkard and a lumpen who can never become Uganda’s president.’ Muhoozi retorted that Rwabwogo was Uganda’s ‘biggest thief,’ revealing strained relations and political competition in the Museveni household. The recent arrest of Rwabwogo’s aide and Muhoozi’s social media posts showing a half-naked Rwabwogo indicate his disdain for Rwabwogo as a political competitor.

Since Museveni’s re-election, Muhoozi has taken on informal roles in government. These include leading the politically charged anti-corruption campaigns against former speaker Anita Among, and threatening to close independent media critical of the Museveni regime. Rwabwogo has criticised Muhoozi for shutting down independent media, but critics have pointed out his own efforts to control the media in 2006.

Analysts view Muhoozi’s presidential ambitions as rooted in an authoritarian vision propelled by military might. Rwabwogo, as an insider in Museveni’s rule, is described in the NRM as a sober alternative. His recent consultative approach aims to galvanise anti-Muhoozi forces in the ruling party to position himself as president post-Museveni. While Uganda’s opposition views Rwabwogo sceptically, he has sought to bolster his credentials by visiting those recently detained by Muhoozi.

Muhoozi’s rise has arguably spelt doom for Ugandan opposition efforts to produce a post-Museveni leader. Veteran opposition leader Dr Kizza Besigye’s arrest in Kenya, his rendition to Uganda’s Luzira Prison and continued detention through court martial have weakened opposition voices. Muhoozi publicly declared on X that Besigye would not be released, despite his deteriorating health. Besigye’s wife Winnie Byanyima, a senior United Nations official, has described Besigye as Muhoozi’s prisoner.

Muhoozi also threatened opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, or Bobi Wine, both before and after the 2026 elections, including expressing a wish to castrate him. Wine’s home was raided, and his wife, Barbie Kyagulanyi, was assaulted. As a result, Wine has fled into exile in the United States – leaving the National Unity Platform short of leadership and direction.

Ugandan law prohibits military personnel from engaging in politics, raising questions about Muhoozi’s manoeuvring

The Museveni succession now increasingly favours the NRM due to its strength in Parliament and the power of incumbency. The prominent position of the military, with Muhoozi at the helm and an institutional participation in Uganda’s politics, suggests that security personnel will likely determine Uganda’s future.

Apart from the risk this poses to democracy, it could also stoke ethnic tensions. Museveni’s rule is widely argued to have benefited the Banyankole in terms of positions and power, to the disadvantage of the populous Baganda, from which the popular Wine originates.

Wine has been the leading opposition figure over the past decade. With many youthful followers in Kampala and beyond, Muhoozi’s rise to power is widely viewed as a threat to democracy. It could lead the opposition to rise up, as happened in Kenya in June 2024.

Right now though, Muhoozi is highly favoured across the executive and legislative arms of government, drawing informal power from his father and his leadership of the military. This puts him at the apex of the Museveni succession debate.


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