Trump’s retreat from democracy could fuel conflict in East Africa

Washington is likely to continue prioritising deals over democratic accountability, with dire consequences for the region’s fragile states.

Published on 11 November 2026 in ISS Today

By

Rahel Hassen
Project Manager and Senior Researcher, East Africa, ISS Nairobi

Said Abdullahi
Research Intern, Conflict Prevention, Management, Resolution and Peacebuilding in the Great Lakes Region, ISS Nairobi

During President Donald Trump’s second term, the United States (US) has de-emphasised democracy in its external engagements and severed funding for related programmes as part of broader US Agency for International Development (USAID) cuts.

The Democrats’ recent midterm victory is unlikely to fundamentally alter the America First Agenda. However, it could intensify congressional calls to restore USAID and increase scrutiny of the administration’s foreign policy.

In March, Nick Checker, then head of the Bureau of African Affairs, said the US would engage African ‘governments as they are, and not as Washington wishes them to be.’ This was a departure from the ‘reckless pursuit of liberal hegemony over the last 30 years’, he said. Instead, Washington would focus on trade and investment, as well as conflict resolution when US interests are directly implicated.

By scaling back support for democracy in Africa, Washington has removed key external constraints on election manipulation, the suppression of opponents and unconstitutional efforts to stay in power. Along with the European Union (EU), the US provided a modest guardrail against these undemocratic practices through diplomatic and economic pressure, and capacity-building support for electoral organs and civil society organisations.

Although EU efforts to strengthen democratic institutions and foster peaceful electoral competition continue, Europe is increasingly looking inward amid changing domestic security and geopolitical priorities. Moreover, like Washington, major European countries have slashed their foreign aid.

These shifts increase the risk of instability, particularly in fragile states where political contestation frequently turns violent due to weak institutions and the presence of armed political actors.

East African countries’ autocratic tendencies make the region vulnerable to the US’ transactional diplomacy

The Trump administration’s deal-making approach has enabled some of Africa’s leaders to offer economic and strategic concessions – from critical minerals to migration deals – in exchange for reduced scrutiny. East Africa, where state fragility and autocratic tendencies remain prevalent, is particularly vulnerable.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) serves as a litmus test. The US has tried to mediate the eastern DRC conflict through the Washington Accords. At the same time, it has secured preferential access to the DRC’s mineral resources.

Meanwhile, DRC President Félix Tshisekedi has initiated controversial constitutional changes that could allow him a third term in office, prompting violent protests and concerns about democratic backsliding. Yet Washington remains silent, even as Tshisekedi has used the US mineral agreement as a pretext for the reform.

Democratic backsliding also characterised elections in Tanzania (October 2025) and Uganda (January 2026). Presidents Samia Suluhu Hassan and Yoweri Museveni oversaw polls conducted in deeply repressive environments marked by pre- and post-election crackdowns on opposition figures, critics and the media.

On Uganda’s polls, the Trump administration was restrained, at least in public. The strongest criticism came from Congress, especially from Senator Jim Risch, a Republican old-guard figure. Regarding Tanzania, the State Department issued a statement that framed its concerns primarily in terms of their implications for US interests rather than for Tanzania’s democracy and citizens.

Washington is silent on Tshisekedi’s third-term bid, even as he uses the US mineral deal to justify the reform

Kampala and Dar Es Salaam are two relatively stable East African Community (EAC) member states. Political opposition parties derive their strength from peaceful mobilisation, particularly among youth. The likelihood of immediate upheaval remains limited, and both incumbents secured new terms without triggering armed conflict. Still, government crackdowns erode legitimacy and deepen grievances, weakening long-term stability.

By contrast, reduced US support for democracy in fragile states risks ushering in governance-related insecurity. Weaker external pressure may lead to greater repression and widespread human rights violations, compounding existing vulnerabilities and fuelling unrest. In these countries, the US’ role is even more vital as it brokers political transitions among local stakeholders, which often enable minimally credible elections that forestall instability.

The US’ retreat from democracy was no doubt welcome news for autocratic-leaning leaders in fragile states. It signalled that Washington was no longer interested in pressuring African governments to uphold democratic values.

Emboldened behaviour is already evident in leaders of three of the EAC’s newest and most fragile member states – the DRC, Somalia and South Sudan. In each case, the political dispensation is being overhauled without broad political consensus, aimed at consolidating and extending leaders’ time in office.

All three countries are still reeling from prolonged civil wars, with institutions that cannot withstand the contestations inherent in their leaders’ actions. These often reactivate and inflame grievances, and can quickly turn violent amid armed opposition.

Liberal values such as democracy cannot be separated from questions of instability in Africa

Opposition figures in fragile states may align with armed groups, as seen in the DRC and South Sudan, or join forces with restive subnational administrations hostile to the central government, as in Somalia. These manoeuvres significantly alter the balance of power and further weaken already limited state authority.

In response, governments often default to military force against the opposition despite the documented failure of such approaches. Protracted confrontations divert attention and resources from urgent national priorities, deepen political division and accelerate state fragmentation. This creates space for threats such as terrorism and intercommunal violence to evolve into more serious security challenges.

Liberal values such as democracy cannot be separated from questions of instability in Africa. As the world’s largest donor and long-standing advocate for democracy, the US under Trump has weakened global efforts to advance democracy and contributed to human rights abuses at the hands of autocrats.

East Africa, which spans two of the continent’s conflict clusters – the Horn of Africa and the Great Lakes Region – is particularly vulnerable. Regional bodies and the African Union should step up cooperation to mitigate the impact.

Washington should reconsider the instability it has indirectly created and re-centre democracy, and by extension human rights, in its African engagement. This would align with its stated policy of managing and resolving conflicts on the continent, and facilitate its trade and investment priorities, particularly in turbulent East Africa.


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