Tigray must avert another cycle of war

As tensions between two TPLF factions rise, urgent measures are needed to prevent another crisis in Ethiopia’s Tigray region.

Published on 16 October 2024 in ISS Today

Meressa K Dessu
Senior Researcher and Training Coordinator, ISS Addis Ababa

Tegbaru Yared
Researcher, Horn of Africa Security Analysis, ISS Addis Ababa

After two years of war in Ethiopia’s Tigray Region, the 2022 Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) ended clashes between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The parties agreed to find lasting and comprehensive solutions, including restoring constitutional order in Tigray.

The TPLF was Tigray’s ruling party for over 30 years. Under the CoHA, it makes up only 51% of the new Tigray Interim Administration (TIA), reducing the party’s tradition of absolute control.

Now the TPLF has split into two factions, and violent conflict looms again. Divisions are mainly between the party’s leaders in the TIA under Getachew Reda (TPLF Deputy Chair and Executive Committee Member) and those led by Party Chair Debretsion Gebremichael.

The former say the latter are trying to undermine and fragment the administration, reducing the TIA’s control over local governance. Debretsion’s faction accuses the TIA of compromising Tigrayan interests, and recently claimed they disagreed with some CoHA provisions despite publicly committing to implementing the agreement.

After coming to power following popular protests and violence in Ethiopia between 2016 and 2018, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali restructured the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front – a coalition of four regional parties including the TPLF – into the Prosperity Party (PP).

The TPLF said the move was illegal and refused to join the PP. This contributed to rising tensions between the PP-led federal government and the TPLF-led Tigray regional government, eventually culminating in the civil war that killed over 600 000 people.

TPLF infighting could be an opportunity to spark a new political culture and marketplace of ideas in Tigray

The CoHA helped establish an ‘inclusive’ TIA. Following his party's nomination, Getachew was appointed president of the interim administration by Abiy. While the TPLF has significant influence over the TIA, the body includes representatives from the political opposition, civil society, Tigray security force and intellectuals.

Many Tigrayans have credited the TIA for improving relations with the federal government, helping return some internally displaced persons (IDPs), attempting to separate party and state structures, entertaining media freedom, and promoting assembly and freedom of speech. At the same time, the TIA has been criticised for not addressing crime, returning all IDPs or fully restoring Tigrayan authority to its pre-war status – some territories remain occupied by Eritrean and Amhara forces.

The TIA has acknowledged its weaknesses on several occasions, but claims the TPLF’s factionalism has intensified its difficult task. Tensions resulted in the Getachew-led faction boycotting the 14^th TPLF Congress in August, convened by Debretsion’s faction. Following the congress’ decisions, 16 senior political figures including Getachew were expelled from the party. The Getachew-led faction has however labelled the congress illegal and its decision ‘null and void.’

Some commentators criticised the congress for bypassing due process and lacking approval from the National Election Board of Ethiopia. The board is a federal institution that registers and manages political parties and ensures impartial elections in the country.

TPLF infighting could, however, spark a new political culture, civic discourse and a marketplace of ideas in Tigray. Both factions hold public meetings freely to build support and haven’t resorted to using the state's coercive power to resolve their differences, as happened after the bloody 1998-2000 Ethiopia-Eritrea war.

Any move by Tigray’s security forces in support of either faction would plunge the region into violence

At the same time, various parts of Tigrayan society have become more assertive and organised, challenging both factions publicly and urging them to avoid violence. This has opened the political space with media outlets, intellectuals, civic organisations, youth and the diaspora expressing different perspectives on politics in Tigray.

Healthy debates among the government, parties and social forces are emerging, which could encourage a more open society and non-violent politics – if sustained. The very existence of the two factions may lead to a more balanced, equitable political environment – if they become separate political parties.

However, the situation is fragile. Both factions seek support from the Tigray security forces, which is a dangerous move against peace. Getachew’s group claims the TIA commands the security forces, but Debretsion’s faction refutes this. So far, the security forces have largely kept their neutral posture, with their leaders committing to maintaining peace and preventing looming anarchy in Tigray.

At this point, any move by Tigray’s security forces to support either faction would plunge the region into more violence. Both sides have popular support, with the youth demanding real changes in the political landscape. Most Tigray security force members are young, so any misstep by their leaders could lead them into violence that will be hard to control.

The TPLF dispute may invite legitimate federal government intervention, which Tigrayans may not welcome

Another consideration is that the TPLF dispute may invite legitimate federal government intervention, which Tigrayans may not welcome. Any attempt by the Debretsion-led faction or other actors against the TIA will affect the federal government’s interests and could result in military interventions and further crisis. The region fought hard for self-administration and self-determination, so Tigrayans would struggle to accept such interventions.

Delays in fully implementing the CoHA may also lead to conflict. The federal government committed to facilitating the return and reintegration of IDPs and refugees, yet hundreds of thousands remain stranded and desperate. More than a million people are displaced in Tigray, and over 70 000 sought refuge in Sudan, which now faces its own civil war. Their continued suffering and frustrations could lead to more violence unless solved urgently.

The federal government also pledged to protect civilians and Tigray’s territories from foreign incursion, but various reports show Eritrean forces are still in Tigray and continue committing atrocities against civilians. Recently, the US Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa Ambassador Mike Hammer warned that this presence of Eritrean forces could ‘flame an already tragic situation.’

To prevent another war in Tigray, the CoHA must be fully implemented and political tensions between the TPLF factions resolved. The international community, particularly the African Union, United Nations and United States – who brokered the CoHA, and the European Union, must persuade the TPLF factions to resolve their differences peacefully. All parties to the CoHA should also be encouraged to honour their commitments.

Leaders of Tigray’s security forces must maintain their neutrality and avoid intervening in support of either TPLF faction, lest the region be turned into chaos.

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