Speculations on Security in South Sudan`s Post-Referendum
Independent voter surveys indicate that more than 70% of southern Sudanese voters favour cessation in the 2011 referendum for self-determination.
Samuel A Hillary Gama, Intern, Security Sector Governance Programme, Pretoria Office
Independent voter surveys indicate that more than 70% of southern
Sudanese voters favour cessation in the 2011 referendum for
self-determination. The foundations for autonomy and self-rule have
been laid by the creation of structures for governance including the
legislature, judiciary and security structures. The main question,
however, is whether or not south Sudan will be able to provide security
to its people while also guaranteeing the security of the state.
The security of south Sudan and the potential for independence is
intricately tied to the historical conflicts within the region. The
regional dynamics will also shape the security complex in which an
independent south could find itself. For example, there are tensions
within the Nile Basin region regarding access to water that have
political implications and the potential border dispute with Kenya over
the Elemi Triangle.
The potential conflict dynamics that would face an independent south
Sudan stem largely from the geopolitical arrangement of the two power
bases located in Khartoum and Juba. The tensions that are derived from
the relationship between Khartoum and Juba can be expected to continue
particularly because of the perceived power imbalance that favours the
north.
Although the 21-year civil war ended in negotiated settlement, the
power sharing arrangements favoured the north mostly because of the
unequal dual governance arrangements. This is evidenced in the manner
in which disbursements are made, making the Government of South Sudan
(GOSS) entirely dependent on Khartoum for financial replenishment. If
south Sudan becomes independent, the economic inter-dependencies
between north and south are a potential source of conflict.
Furthermore, south Sudan as an inland region will have to rely on ports
of the neighboring states. The two potential options are Mombasa and
Port Sudan. Each of these comes with their own particular complexities
and the prospective independent south Sudan would have to negotiate
these relationships.
The ability of an independent government in south Sudan to meet the
developmental needs of its people is going to be dependent upon
economic growth and massive investment in infrastructure. This will be
challenging and will demand foreign support. Potentially, the
substantial mineral reserves found in south Sudan could be the
foundation of economic prosperity. The management of the extraction of
mineral wealth will be a complex challenge for a new government and the
manner in which this will be done could determine the economic
viability of the state and development for the people.
Internal threats within the south Sudan mainly relate to violent
ethnic rivalries over resources. Ethnicity and ethnic rifts are
prominent in the south with inter-ethnic conflicts often gaining ground
because of the availability of arms. Moreover, politicians might be
inclined to utilise ethnic rivalries for personal political gain, which
could impact negatively on the security dynamics on the ground.
A newly independent south Sudan government is going to be challenged
to forge a national identity that incorporates all the diverse ethnic
identities and breaks the dichotomy of majority-minority rhetoric.
Creating internal stability will also be dependent on having an
inclusive demobilisation, disarmament and rehabilitation (DDR) process
that results in reduced access to small arms and thereby reduces the
potential for communal violence.
External security threats to south Sudan will probably be composed
of transnational criminal groups such as international terrorist
groups, drug traffickers, money launderers, influx of immigrants, human
traffickers and other activities related to conducting illegal, tax
evading businesses. Many criminal operatives would take advantage of
the weaknesses in the state security architecture and exploit these.
The ability of an independent south to provide security and justice
to the people will be largely determined by the manner in which the
security sector is transformed. The issue of security sector reform in
south Sudan is an important part of the peace building process. There
are currently allegations of human rights abuses being leveled against
both the military and the police. The tensions between what should be
security service providers and the people stems from the manner in
which the police in particular was created and the general lack of
training that has been rolled out. Ex-military personnel are frequently
tasked with policing services although they have not been trained in
human rights duties and therefore they do not have the skills to
maintain public order.
Moreover, the judiciary has limited capacity of maintaining law and
order because either the law practitioners in the south were either
trained in Sharia law system based in the north or there are not enough legal personnel to maintain effective administration of justice.
There can be no doubt that an independent south Sudan will face
enormous challenges. These challenges will stem not only from the
external environment, which is going to be hostile to the new kid on
the block. Internally, the human security challenges are immense and
cover diverse horizons from health care to education, infrastructure to
security. The viability of a stable independent state is going to be
predicated on its ability to meet societal expectations of service
delivery. There will be a need for intensified dialogue and equitable
nation building programmes to create a unified southern Sudan.
