Senegal: Lessons Of Electoral Integrity

The recent controversy over the bid by Senegal’s President Abdoulaye Wade to hang onto power looked set to end in yet another electoral disaster in West Africa. Yet, the integrity of the electoral process seems to be a crucial mitigating factor. It is highly likely that Wade will be defeated in the second round of elections - a humiliating exit for a leader who fought all his life for democratic governance and peaceful power transition.

Published on 06 March 2012 in ISS Today

David Zounmenou, Senior Researcher and  Refiloe Joala, Intern, Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis Division, ISS Pretoria

On 26 February, Africa held its breath as Senegalese went to the polls to elect their president. The controversy over  the incumbent Abdoulaye Wade looked set to end in  yet another electoral disaster in West Africa. Old tricks of constitutional manipulation, endorsed by the Constitutional Court, paved the way for Wade (85) with 12 years in power to seek a third term in office. One gets the impression that leaders do not learn from history.

Streets protests, sometimes violently repressed, as well as international pressure could not make President Wade change his mind. Meanwhile both the government and the opposition unanimously rejected a proposal by the ECOWAS/AU mediation for an ill-defined two years’ transition plan. Many citizens feared  violence during the vote. But this did not happen. And even if the mobilization during the voting day was not as overwhelming as expected – the voter turnout was 51.56 percent, the lowest since 2000  - the message was clear: Senegalese democracy needs to be protected and unnecessary political crisis avoided.  Confusing messages from the opposition leaders, fear of violence and absence of a real debate on the socio-economic alternatives to Wade might have kept a substantial number of voters away.

When the long awaited results were finally made public, close to 60 percent of the Senegalese voted for the opposition. Were the opposition leaders united, Wade could have been pushed out quite disgracefully right from the first round - a humiliating exit for a leader who fought all his life for democratic governance and peaceful power transition. Notwithstanding, four dynamics emerged in this particular electoral process as major motivations for the Senegalese voter. 

Firstly, it is clear that the Senegalese population is committed to maintain the democratic credentials of the country and upholding peace and stability, especially in light of recent developments in the region. Secondly, for the greater part of the population, the vote was taking place against the background of persistent power failures, commodity price hikes that hit the ordinary citizen in Senegal, systemic corruption and growing social inequality. Thirdly there is an overwhelming desire to keep the national political consensus and to reaffirm the importance of ethics in politics at a time where political manipulation have led to not only elections-related violence but also a stagnation in the democratization process in many countries. Finally, the rise of the popular protest movement against Wade’s third term, M23, as the voice of the population, somehow re-appropriates the fight for decent political leaders, the respect for the constitution, political accountability and the preservation of national democratic achievements.

It is important to point out the relative credibility and integrity of the Senegalese electoral monitoring bodies as essential mitigating elements in the recent electoral process in Senegal. There are now calls for them to further improve the standards and deliver a clean run-off. Most of the results for the first round were announced on various independent news networks, before being confirmed by the electoral commission.

In securing only 34.8 per cent of the national votes, Wade failed to achieve an outright win. This is a sharp decline from 2000 and 2007 when he won respectively 58.49% and 55.90% percent. It is clear that the people of Senegal are dissatisfied with Wade’s insistence to hang onto power (manoeuvres to groom his son, the aborted proposed presidential ticket that would give him a victory with 25% and power to appoint a vice-president) and want a new leader to take the country forward. Collectively the opposition managed to rally a total of about 60 per cent amongst the  three top candidates following Wade, namely, Macky Sall who came in second with 26.5 per cent of the votes; Moustapha Niasse at 13.2 per cent and Idrissa Seck with 7.8 per cent of the total votes.  With the unequivocal decision to support Macky Sall in the run-off, Senegalese opposition leaders align themselves with the general aspiration of the country to force Wade into political retirement and probably wilderness. If this happens, it will hold a crucial lesson that electoral integrity could be an important tool to mitigate political crisis not only for Senegal but also for the rest of the continent.

Therefore, the 18 March run-off is a test for the country’s electoral bodies. It is also a historic decision-making moment for the citizens to put an end to one of the major causes of political crises in Africa. There are again concerns that the run-off might be affected by violence. While there might be some tension, there are important factors minimizing the fear of a Côte d’Ivoire-like scenario. The army in Senegal has over the years managed to remain neutral in the political process, protecting its reputation as one of the most disciplined as far as politics is concerned. Authorities managing the electoral process are faced with a historical responsibility to preserve the transparency of the electoral process and to see Senegal through another peaceful and credible power transition. Their personal integrity and institutional credibility is at stake.

However, while the need for change is being clearly articulated, there doesn’t seem to be any coherent innovative socio-economic policies from the opposition to take the nation forward. What seems to be essentially at stake at this stage is to get rid of Wade and closing one of the most controversial political episodes in Senegalese democratic journey. The dream to have the president’s son Karim Wade taking over will definitely be put to rest. On paper, the M23 and Macky Sall look set to win the run-off unless there is a dramatic turn of events. Wade and his supporters still hope that the abstainers would cast their vote for him, thinking that it is now merely a choice between the original (Wade) and the copy (Sall).

As original as it might be, it cannot last forever. The reality is that the national feeling is no longer favourable to Wade and the body language of the Senegalese president when he announced at a press conference the probability of a run-off displayed the precarious position in which he finds himself. An opposition victory will have at least two major implications for Senegal and Africa. The first is that, progressively, the continent is entering a situation where the youth in many countries is unwilling to accept imposed authoritative leaders. Taking over from traditional politicians, youth social mobilization and the use of social networks remain the most effective tools for contestation. In Senegal, because the army is neutral, the political debate has remained relatively less violent. Secondly, Senegalese experience will have an effect on electoral processes in the region and perhaps in the rest of the continent as well throughout this year. And in the absence of transparency, one should expect more violence while the quest for democratic consolidation and socio-economic improvement of the people remains a deferred dream.