Insurgency in Somalia and Kenya's Security Dilemma
The piece examines the recent offensive against Al-Shabaab in Somalia and how it affects Kenya. The author recommends that it is necessary for Kenya to tighten border security and make sure that all initiatives taken towards finding peace for its neighbour are informed by the political, security and humanitarian situation on the ground.
Barako Elema, Intern, African conflict prevention programme, ISS Nairobi Office
The recent armed confrontation between Al-Shabaab and the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and its allied forces in the Somali town of Bulahawa, about a kilometre from the Kenyan border town of Mandera, has intensified security concerns in the East African region, particularly in Kenya and Uganda.
Kenya, which continues to host a high number of refugees fleeing from the war-torn Somalia, not only suffers the direct effects of the fighting, but is also faced with a humanitarian crisis from the displacement of about 5000 residents of Mandera as a result of the confrontation. Stray bullets fired by the Al-Shabaab militants into the town killed one person and seriously wounded ten others. Subsequently the town was deserted as residents sought refuge at a local sports stadium.
The situation has since exposed Kenya’s vulnerability in the face of a possible spill over of the Somali conflict and proved the extent of volatility on the Kenyan border. As fighting persisted, Kenya’s Minister for Provincial Administration and Internal Security announced the closure of Kenya’s border with Somalia over fears of a worsening of the crisis. According to the United Nations Office for Humanitarian Affairs about 6000 asylum seekers were caught up in the crossfire on the Somali side of the border and the closure of the border left many stranded at the border post.
Kenya’s military contingent comprising of the armed forces, administration and the regular police continues to hold a tight grip on the porous border between the two countries. A spokesperson for the defense force has reported that they were able to nab eleven suspected fighters of Al-shabaab as they attempted to illegally cross the border into Kenya. In a rejoinder the spokesperson of Al-Shabaab, Sheikh Ali Mohammoud Raghe, accused the Kenyan government of aiding the TFG forces by explicitly supporting it and threatened Kenya with attacks. Despite the threat, Kenya’s hands are tied by the Djibouti peace agreement that bars frontline states from directly intervening in the situation in Somalia. However, Kenya like many other states in the region, continues to provide critical capacity building training to Somalia’s security forces. About 600 Somalis undergoing training in Kenya are reported to have been deployed to reinforce the pro-government forces.
Kenya is vulnerable to the fighting in Somalia in two major ways. First, owing to the porous nature of its borders with Somalia, there are concerns that small arms and light weapons from Somalia could end up in the hands of criminal gangs and contribute to the creation of insecurity within Kenya. Secondly, as stated above, Al-Shabaab has threatened to attack Kenya for what it perceives to be Kenyan support for the TFG. Against a background of the recent bombing of civilians in Kampala, such a threat to Kenya cannot be taken lightly. In the meantime Kenyan Police has issued a security alert against nine suspected Islamic fighters on the prowl in Kenya. All nine are Kenyan nationals who have been trained by Al-Shabaab. The police did not fall short of connecting the suspects to the organized criminal gangs in Kenya, the pre-referendum attacks at the Uhuru Park, and the attacks on police officers in two Nairobi suburbs last year. Security agents have in the past reported possible recruitment of Muslim youths of Somali origin by Al-Shabaab to fight in its ranks.
In a move to contain the situation, the idea of establishing a buffer zone comprising of Gedo, Middle Juba and Lower Juba now under the grip of militants is being discussed. Known as the Jubaland Initiative, it will take the model of regional administrations like Somaliland and Puntland and seek to contain the refugee crisis and arms flow into neighbouring countries including Kenya. Such an initiative will however have a great impact on the Ogaden region, which is already fighting for secession and further trigger other secessionist attempts. This is because of the nature of the initiative, which could be described as being ‘pro-autonomy’. Notwithstanding, the initiative represents Kenya’s acknowledgement of the threat of insecurity across its borders and expresses its willingness to protect its citizens. It is, however, important for Kenya not to be drawn into any direct confrontation with insurgents in Somalia since such a situation could further radicalise people in the interest of Al-Shabaab and easily facilitate a spill over of the chaos into Kenya. It is necessary for Kenya to tighten its border security and make sure that all initiatives it takes towards finding peace for its neighbour are informed by the political, security and humanitarian situation on the ground.
