All eyes on Madagascar voting for a new president
A lot depends on a free and fair election in Madagascar, more than four years after Rajoelina's coup
It could be described as a make or break election for Madagascar – the first since the coup d’état by the former mayor of Antananarivo, Ange Rajoelina, on 21 March 2009. If all goes well and the elections are deemed free and fair, Madagascar will almost automatically be re-admitted to the African Union (AU). Sanctions may be lifted, much-needed aid flows will be unblocked and the country will be allowed to once again benefit from the US African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). And, who knows, tourists, one of the main sources of income for the Indian Ocean, may start coming back.
Today, just over 7,8 million voters are called to the polls to cast their vote. But it’s not going to be easy. For ordinary voters, finding their way through the list of 33 presidential candidates on the single ballot paper will be tricky, especially for first-time voters and those who have received little or no voters’ education. For the past few weeks all the main candidates have been criss-crossing the island, speaking to crowds about their plans for Madagascar, which has been brought to its knees by the political crisis.
Observers on the ground say there are still many people who might not turn up to vote. Some are unhappy about the interference by the international community, which has driven the mediation process since the coup d’état. They are bitter about the decision in August this year to exclude the country’s main political candidates from the race and believe the country is still not ready for presidential elections. Others will stay away simply because they’re not interested, and then there are those who say the political class in Madagascar in its entirety is to blame for dragging the country down. One can’t really blame them for thinking that.
Even before the coup against former President Marc Ravalomanana – who now lives in exile in South Africa – the drawn-out electoral dispute between him and former President Didier Ratsiraka in 2001 and 2002 had already done huge damage to both the country’s economy and its image. In the last four years with Rajoelina at the helm, international sanctions have further cut off aid flows. Humanitarian organisations like UNICEF say the situation is dire, with over fifty percent of the country’s children suffering stunted growth due to malnutrition. The World Bank recently launched an emergency food security project to curb hunger on the island, which was again hit by devastating cyclones this year.
One observer in Antananarivo, who prefers to remain anonymous, yesterday said that for now all seemed calm and relatively organised. ‘But as we know, the problems rarely arise on the day of the vote. It is only after the results are announced.’
Observers from the African Union (AU), the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the European Union (EU), the International Francophone Organisation (OIF) and the Indian Ocean Commission, led by the former president of the Comoros Azali Assoumani, will be deployed across the country to check if all runs smoothly. Added to this are several thousand local observers.
As with many elections in Africa lately, the issue of the distribution of voters’ cards can pose a problem. However, this week the head of the Transitional National Electoral Commission (CENI-T), Béatrice Atallah, said voters whose names were on the voters’ role but who hadn’t received voters’ cards, would be allowed to vote with their national identity cards – a small concession that may nevertheless contain the frustration of some citizens let down by the technicalities of the process.
But will the international community lift its sanctions and restart the much-needed aid flows as soon as the election is over? Some observers believe this could take weeks, even months. Earlier, SADC mediator Joachim Chissano warned that the election could be only the beginning of the country’s ‘real transition’, and that it could take as long as five years for the country to get back onto its feet.
These elections, with no incumbent participating, is certainly a first – if not for Africa then certainly for Madagascar. Following the drawn-out mediation process, the decision by the special electoral court to bar Rajoelina, Ratsiraka and Lala Ravalomanana (Marc Ravalomanana’s wife) came as a shock to some. The question still remains whether this is really a democratic solution to a political crisis. It certainly is a novel outcome to a situation that started with a coup.
Yet, despite fears that this ‘radical solution’ won’t work and that mass protests from especially the Ravalomanana camp could derail the elections, the electoral commission forged ahead. It is clear, though, that the big players are pulling the strings in the background. Marc Ravalomanana is said to be backing former health minister Jean-Louis Robinson, following the disqualification of his wife on the grounds that she had not spent the required six months before the election in the country.
It is less clear who has the outright backing of Rajoelina, although many say his favourite is Hery Rajaonarimampianina, the former minister of finance. Other candidates could also claim allegiance to the former disc jockey who grabbed power at the age of 34. Among them are Edgar Razafindravahy, current mayor of Antananarivo, and former Prime Minister Camille Vital.Rajoelina has, however, already set his eyes on the legislative elections, which will take place on 20 December, along with a possible second round. The ‘Putin solution’ might be just what he has in mind – running the country with a mostly symbolic president, as Russian President Vladimir Putin has done in the past. Rajoelina is certainly young enough to envisage a long political career ahead of him.
Liesl Louw-Vaudran, ISS consultant
