What to do about the Burundi crisis

The Burundi crisis is chipping away at 10 years of peaceful transition and risks further destabilising the Great Lakes.

Date: 2015-05-13

Time: 09:00 to 10:30

Venue: Conference room , ISS Nairobi , Braeside Gardens , off Muthangari Road , Lavington , map

With dozens dead or injured and tens of thousands of refugees across the region, the Burundi crisis is chipping away at 10 years of peaceful transition and risks further destabilising the Great Lakes.

A recent constitutional court ruling approving President Pierre Nkurunziza’s bid for a third term, despite a constitutional restriction limiting mandates to two terms, has resulted in demonstrations in the capital and surrounding areas since 26 April, and an attempted coup on 13 May.

This seminar analysed the current crisis and discussed opportunities for addressing the tensions and building lasting peace in Burundi.

Speakers presented an update on the human rights and political situation, as well as the potential scenarios in the country. The role of regional actors and the upcoming elections was also discussed. Peter Aling’o, ISS Nairobi Office Head and Senior Researcher chaired the seminar. Speakers were:

• Sarah Jackson, Deputy Regional Director for East Africa, the Horn and the Great Lakes, Amnesty International
• Thierry Vircoulon, Project Director, Central Africa, International Crisis Group, Nairobi
• Yolande Bouka, Researcher, Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis division, ISS Nairobi

Sarah Jackson explained that the current political deadlock has brought Burundi to the brink of a human rights crisis with potentially irreversible consequences for the region. ‘Protests that were originally peaceful have turned increasingly violent’, said Jackson. This follows a government crackdown on protesters and an announcement by the CNDD-FDD of the nomination of Nkurunziza for a third mandate.

There is a tangible climate of fear of potential abuse, particularly in rural areas, where access to information has been limited. This has led to nearly 50 000 Burundians seeking refuge in neighbouring countries. The Imbonerakure, the youth wing of the ruling party has ‘become emboldened by the impunity it has enjoyed over the past few years’, according to Jackson.

Thierry Vircoulon highlighted the precarious political situation and potential scenarios for Burundi – including the possibility of a political coup. Vircoulon observed that although local and legislative elections are set to take place in Burundi, ‘everyone is focusing on the presidential elections’. He argued that ignoring local elections is a ‘strategic mistake’ and that the current crisis started after the previous elections.

The best scenario for Burundi would be ‘for the government and the opposition to reach a consensual agreement on the way forward’ said Vircoulon. However, given that both parties have taken opposing positions regarding President Nkurunziza’s candidacy, this scenario may not be likely.

Yolande Bouka discussed the role of regional actors and the upcoming elections. According to Bouka, while early in the crisis, the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council initially called for Burundians to abide by the then pending Constitutional Court decision on the legality of Nkurunziza’s third mandate campaign, chairperson Dlamini Zuma questioned the legitimacy and legality of the court decision.

Burundi’s neighbours have expressed concerns over the Burundi crisis as an increasing number of refugees have settled in their respective countries. As such, heads of state of the East African Community were set to meet on 13 May to address the political situation in Burundi.

The AU and some European actors have withdrawn their support for the electoral process until favourable conditions for peaceful, free and fair elections are restored.

Shortly after the seminar concluded, news broke of an attempted coup in Bujumbura following Nkurunziza’s departure for the EAC summit in Tanzania. Major General Godefroid Niyombare, former head of intelligence and CNDD-FDD insider, orchestrated the attempted coup. Niyombare had recently been dismissed following circulation of an internal memo outlining the risks associated with any attempts by Nkurunziza to run for a third term.

The failed coup attempt, while unexpected to some, did not come as a surprise to the seminar speakers. While many expected the coup to be along ethnic lines, with former members the Tutsi-led Burundian Armed Forces taking the lead, ISS research shows the rift within the political and military branch of the CNDD-FDD was also important to consider when trying to identify potential fault lines. Given recent events, Burundi’s future remains uncertain.