View on Africa: Burundi

For expert analysis of events in Africa, join the ISS’ new View on Africa weekly briefing every Wednesday starting 13 May.

Date: 2015-05-13

Time: 10:00 to 11:00

Venue: Situation Room , Block C , ISS Pretoria (map) and Online: VoiceBoxer

The Institute for Security Studies launched the View on Africa weekly briefing on 13 May with a look at the Burundi crisis.

Shortly after the briefing, news broke of a coup attempt in Bujumbura following President Pierre Nkurunziza’s departure for the East African Community (EAC) summit in Tanzania. General Godefroid Nyombare announced that he was removing Nkurunziza from office, but the situation on the ground remains fluid and it is uncertain who is currently in control in Burundi. ISS is working with local and international partners to provide analysis on the situation as it develops.

The issue

Burundi has been in the midst of widespread demonstrations in response to Nkurunziza’s decision to run for a third term in office, despite a constitutional restriction limiting mandates to two terms. Recently, the constitutional court added fuel to the fire by ruling that Nkurunziza’s bid for a third term may go ahead. What are the origins of the crisis? What are the scenarios ahead of the 26 May elections?

Key points

The opposition believes the constitutional court ruling was political.
The opposition and international community want the election postponed because they believe the current conditions are not suitable for elections. Key countries are starting to withdraw financial support.
Without international funding it will be difficult to proceed with elections, but the Burundi Independent Electoral Commission says it can proceed.
The EAC is crucial to a resolution, but it has come to the table very late. What will regional leaders say? So far EAC leaders appear divided, with Rwanda and Tanzania coming out against a third term.

What to watch

If the protests continue, but the ruling party presses ahead with elections, how free and fair can the polls be? What kind of credibility can they enjoy under such circumstances, when even the African Union (AU) has said that it is not prepared to send observers?

As the protests expand outside of Bujumbura, more people flee and the situation increasingly becomes a threat to regional security. Burundian and other armed groups active in the region could contribute to instability. If the FNL, one of Burundi’s largest opposition groups and a former rebel group, concludes that the political space does not exist for them to participate in politics peacefully, they could return to an armed campaign.

A collapse of the military is possible. So far the army has played a positive role, helping to keep the violence low-scale, but there are divisions within the army. If tensions are aggravated and the armed forces become politicised, there is a risk that factions in the army could start to take sides in the standoff. A scenario in such a development is a military coup.

About View on Africa

Do you want to know what’s happening in Africa? Where it’s happening and what it means for the continent’s many actors?

Join the new View on Africa weekly briefing every Wednesday from 11.00 – 12.00 CAT at the ISS in Pretoria or online. ISS researchers from Dakar, Nairobi, Addis Ababa and Pretoria provide expert analysis of major events and trends in Africa. Introductory remarks are followed by discussions among participants. Online briefings are available in English or French.

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