The future of intrastate conflict in Africa: More violence or greater peace?

Date: 2013-07-05

Time: 10:00 to 12:15

Venue: Conference Room , ISS Pretoria

The seminar provided an opportunity to launch and discuss a new paper by Dr Jakkie Cilliers and Dr Julia Schuenemann on the future of intrastate conflict in Africa. The main speaker was Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Executive Director of the ISS. Dr Paul-Simon Handy, Head of the ISS’s Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis Division was the respondent, and Anton du Plessis, Deputy Executive Director of the ISS, chaired the meeting.

The paper presented at the seminar analyses future trends for intrastate conflict in Africa up to 2050 using the International Futures (IFs) model. After reviewing the main post-Cold War patterns of conflict and instability on the continent, the paper discusses seven key correlations associated with intrastate conflict in Africa. It then points to a number of reasons for the changing outlook, including the continued salience of various ‘structural’ conditions that drive intrastate violence even during rapid economic growth, recent improvements in human development alongside a strengthened regional and international conflict prevention, conflict resolution and peacebuilding regime. Finally, the paper explores how multipolarity may impact on stability and forecasts trends for intrastate conflict in West, Southern, Horn/East and Central Africa. The authors expect large-scale violence to continue its steady decline, although the risk of instability and violence is likely to persist, and even increase in some instances.

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Presentation by Dr. Jakkie Cilliers

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