This report presents various political scenarios for the future of South Africa. The most likely course of events is that Cyril Ramaphosa will be re-elected as president of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) in December 2022, even as ongoing divisions wrack the party. The ANC gets 48% in 2024, but stitches together a governing coalition. South Africa’s economy will grow, but slowly. A decisive win for Ramaphosa’s faction could unlock more rapid growth, while victory for the so-called Radical Economic Transformation camp could have unexpected positive outcomes.
About the author
Jakkie Cilliers is the founder and former executive director of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS). He currently serves as Chair of the ISS Board of Trustees and Head of the African Futures & Innovation Programme at the Pretoria office of the ISS.
Image: © Amelia Broodryk/ISS