On the afternoon of Saturday 15 March 2002, about 1,000 rebel troops loyal to erstwhile chief of staff General François Bozizé entered Bangui, the capital of the Central African Republic, virtually unopposed and seized control of the airport and presidential palace before securing the entire city. President Patassé, returning from a regional summit in Niger, learned of his predicament when his aircraft was fired upon as it approached Bangui. The pilot diverted to Cameroon, where Patassé was given refuge.

On local radio on Sunday night General Bozizé was introduced to listeners as the new head of state. He announced that he was suspending the constitution and dissolving parliament. A ten-day overnight curfew was introduced and all security forces ordered to return to barracks. Bozizé claimed that his forces had taken power “because of the mismanagement of the country and its inability to carry out its domestic responsibilities”. The new government, he said, was one “of peace and national reconciliation”. He assured his audience that he would attempt a quick reconstruction of the country, to which end he would approach the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) for post-conflict assistance. He also noted a need to reconcile elements within the armed forces and to overhaul government bureaucracy.

International condemnation of Bozizé`s seizure of power was swift in coming, though it lacked passion and, with few exceptions, seemed to be more part of the ritual deemed mandatory in such circumstances. There were many reasons why the leaders of the Central African region had little cause to appreciate the deposed leader, his domestic policies or his taste in friends and allies. This was especially so once President Patassé chose to become dependent for his security upon a narrowly-based presidential guard and, increasingly, on the forces of his ally Libya and the Congolese rebel movement of Jean-Pierre Bemba. This alienated most of the other leaders of the region as well as virtually the entire domestic military establishment.

Indeed, Chad, which many saw as supporting the rebellion, was quick to respond to Bozizé`s request for soldiers to assist in curbing the widespread looting in the capital and, remarkably, in disarming all his own rebels but his personal protection unit. The African Union’s public disapproval of the ‘coup’ notwithstanding, delegates shortly began to arrive from a number of other governments in the region, eager to engage with the country’s new ruler.

The former colonial power, France, had long become disillusioned with Patassé, and though it dispatched a force of 300 troops to Bangui, their mandate was only to protect those foreign nationals wishing to leave, and to restore the peace rather than the fortunes of a discredited leader.

Bozizé’s initial moves have demonstrated a steady hand. He has appointed as prime minister the respected veteran politician Dr Abel Goumba, and has included in the cabinet and the institutions established to guide the transition to democracy prominent figures of all political persuasions, including moderate supporters of the man he replaced.

All this bodes well for the present, and the question now among interested observers is how long this can last. Will General Bozizé maintain his role as arbiter over the construction of a new democratic polity, or will he be tempted as so many soldiers before him, to assume a more permanent position at the head of national affairs? He will be constrained by his need to marshal international financial assistance, because not the least of his predecessor’s problems was the government’s inability to pay the salaries of its employees, civil and military.

At the moment he has the goodwill of the Central African region, happy at the discomfiture of Libya and of Jean-Pierre Bemba. Whether he can retain his evident popularity in Bangui may depend on how quickly he can fulfil some of the expectations of a turn around in the nation’s fortunes.

Certainly, suspension from the organs of the African Union will be the least of Bozizé`s immediate problems, though the popular reception given this irregular change of power may give that organisation pause for thought about contextualising issues of principle. For good or ill, political situation s which develop on the African continent, rarely conform in their configuration to the absolutes in which principled pronouncements are couched.